AP Photo/Tom GannamStedman Bailey's 90-yard punt-return TD was just one of the Rams' key special-teams plays.
Three statistical takeaways from the trickery the St. Louis Rams used in their win over theSeattle Seahawks on Sunday.
How unlikely was that punt return?
It’s not easy to return a punt 90 yards for a touchdown against the Seahawks. In fact,Stedman Bailey’s punt-return touchdown was the second longest for a score against the Seahawks in their history.
Jo-Jo Townsell of the New York Jets had a 91-yard punt-return touchdown against them in Week 8 of the 1987 season.
This was actually the second straight season that the Rams had a punt return of 90 yards or more for a score. They had a 98-yarder against the Colts in 2013.
What to make of the fake punt?
What are the mathematics behind the fake punt choice by Jeff Fisher?
If punter Johnny Hekker had thrown an incomplete pass, the Rams would have given the ball back to the Seahawks in prime scoring position (the Rams’ 18) and St. Louis’ win probability would have dropped to 34.9 percent.
By converting, the Rams’ win probability rose to 85.8 percent.
Had the Rams punted, netted 40 yards and taken 13 seconds off the clock, the Seahawks would have had the ball on their own 42. The Rams' win probability would have been 54 percent.
Seattle allows multiple long returns
The Rams also got a 71-yard kickoff return from Benny Cunningham that set up their first touchdown of the day in the first quarter. Seattle allowed just one special-teams return of 70 yards or more all of last season and hadn’t allowed a team to have multiple 70-yard special-teams returns in the same game since Week 3 of 2010 against the San Diego Chargers.
As for the Rams? Cunningham’s kick return was the longest by a Rams player since Week 16 of 2010, when Danny Amendola had an 84-yard kick return against the 49ers.
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