Brian Lawdermilk/Getty ImagesJeff Gordon is the favorite to win at Martinsville on Sunday according to our projections
| Driver | Proj Finish | Proj Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jeff Gordon | 1 | 47 |
| Matt Kenseth | 2 | 43 |
| Denny Hamlin | 3 | 42 |
| Brad Keselowski | 4 | 41 |
| Joey Logano | 5 | 40 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 6 | 39 |
| Kevin Harvick | 7 | 37 |
| Clint Bowyer | 8 | 36 |
| Ryan Newman | 9 | 36 |
| Carl Edwards | 10 | 34 |
| Kyle Busch | 11 | 34 |
| Austin Dillon | 12 | 32 |
| Jamie McMurray | 13 | 33 |
| Brian Vickers | 14 | 30 |
| Kurt Busch | 15 | 29 |
| Justin Allgaier | 16 | 28 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 17 | 27 |
| Kasey Kahne | 18 | 26 |
| Paul Menard | 19 | 25 |
| Greg Biffle | 20 | 24 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 21 | 23 |
| Aric Almirola | 22 | 22 |
| Tony Stewart | 23 | 22 |
| Marcos Ambrose | 24 | 20 |
| Danica Patrick | 25 | 19 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 26 | 18 |
| Kyle Larson | 27 | 17 |
| Casey Mears | 28 | 16 |
| Michael Annett | 29 | 15 |
| David Ragan | 30 | 14 |
| Alex Bowman | 31 | 13 |
| Landon Cassill | 32 | 12 |
| David Gilliland | 33 | 11 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | 34 | 10 |
| Travis Kvapil | 35 | 9 |
| Cole Whitt | 36 | 8 |
| Reed Sorenson | 37 | 7 |
| JJ Yeley | 38 | 6 |
| Josh Wise | 39 | 5 |
| Timmy Hill | 40 | 4 |
| Kyle Fowler | 41 | 3 |
| Clay Rogers | 42 | 2 |
| Mike Wallace | 43 | 1 |
Here are the projections for Sunday's Sprint Cup race at Martinsville. Our projection system takes into account, among other factors, drivers’ past performances at the current track, pre-race on-track activity (practices and qualifying) and probability of finishing the race. All of the data is then adjusted for the track type (in this case, a .526-mile oval) and time of year.
" The eight-driver Eliminator Round of the Chase begins at the shortest track on the circuit, Martinsville Speedway. A win for any of the remaining Chasers would clinch a spot in the Championship Round, where the highest finisher among the four remaining Chasers at Homestead will win the 2014 title.
" Jeff Gordon’s quest to become the third-oldest champion in NSCS history continues, and he could very well punch his ticket in the Championship Round on Sunday. Gordon is the reigning champion of this race and has eight career wins at Martinsville. A win would tie Jimmie Johnson (at Dover) for the most wins by an active driver at one track.
" In 10 previous years of the Chase, the eventual champion has finished no worse than sixth in the Martinsville Chase race, with four wins and a 2.9 average finish. Nine of the 10 eventual champions also led at least one lap in this race.
" 2012 NSCS champion Brad Keselowski punched his ticket to the Eliminator Round with a win last week at Talladega. A second-place finish would’ve eliminated him. It was Keselowski’s NSCS-leading sixth win of the season. Since 2009, any driver with at least six wins in a season has finished in the top two in points.
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