2014年10月10日星期五

Inside the matchup: Cowboys vs. Seahawks

Matthew Emmons/USA TODAY SportsDeMarco Murray has rushed for 100 yards in all 5 games this season. Seattle allows only 62.3 rush YPG
Russell Wilson doesn’t lose often at home.

In his career, Wilson is 19-1 (including playoffs) at CenturyLink Field, the best home winning percentage of any quarterback in the league over that span. Since his only loss (Week 16 vs Cardinals last year), Wilson has won five straight - against the Rams, Saints, 49ers,Packers and Broncos.

Tony Romo is 0-2 in starts at Seattle in his career, including the famous Wild Card Playoff loss in 2006. Here’s a look at three matchups that could decide whether Romo gets his first win in the Emerald City, or if the Cowboys are just the latest team to fall against Wilson at home.

DeMarco Murray vs Seahawks rush defense
To know DeMarco Murray as only the league’s leading rusher (670 yards) undersells his incredible start. Murray joined Jim Brown and O.J. Simpson as the only players to rush for at least 100 yards in the first five games of a season. How good has Murray been?

• Excluding the Cowboys, the only team with more rushes of at least 10 yards than Murray (20) this season is the Ravens (21).

• Murray has more yards before contact (405) than five teams have total rushing yards.

• Murray’s league-high 265 yards after contact would rank 17th as a stand-alone total among running backs, and is a larger total than 26 entire teams.

• Murray is averaging more yards per rush (5.2) than two qualified quarterbacks have yards per dropback (Matt Cassel and Chad Henne), and has more 10-yard rushes than Cassel and Henne have 10-yard pass plays.

Much of Murray’s success stems from Dallas’ excellent offensive line. All five members of that line have played all 331 snaps this season, including three first-round draft picks (Zack Martin, Tyron Smith and Travis Frederick).

That unit faces a significant test Sunday afternoon, as the Seahawks rush defense has allowed a league-low 62.3 yards per game and 2.6 yards per rush. Getting a push at the line of scrimmage is no given against the Seahawks, who have also allowed a league-low 1.1 yards before contact per rush this season.

Seahawks rushing vs. Cowboys defensive line
Offensive line continuity has also benefitted Seattle’s ground game, which is averaging an extra full yard per rush before contact this season. The Seahawks top offensive line unit has played 236-of-243 offensive snaps (97 percent) this year. Seattle’s top line combination last year played only 22 percent of the team’s snaps, with five different groups receiving at least 90 snaps.

Seattle’s average gain on 1st down is 6.8 yards (second best in NFL), putting the offense and Wilson in a position to succeed. The Seahawks offense has scored on 41.3 percent of drives, sixth best in the league.

The Cowboys front seven is nowhere near as equipped to stop the run as the Seahawks. Dallas has allowed 5.2 yards per rush this season (second worst) and a league-worst 3.8 rush yards before contact.

Tony Romo vs. Seahawks pass rush
Tony Romo has been exceptional during Dallas’ four-game winning streak, posting a 95.1 Total QBR against standard pressure in that span. Romo’s completed 78.6 percent of his passes and averaged more than nine yards per attempt against four or fewer rushers since Week 2.

Through four games, Seattle hasn’t been the dominant defense it was last year. The Seahawks dropped from the league’s best defensive efficiency to 11th and has only three takeaways after leading the league with 39 last year. Seattle has pressured opposing quarterbacks on 17 percent of dropbacks (sacked, under duress or hit while throwing), almost half (33 percent) of last year’s percentage.

But is the defense actually down? Through four games, the 3-1 Seahawks have faced three of the top six quarterbacks by 2013 Total QBR this season (Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers).

After Romo on Sunday, Seattle will play Austin Davis, Cam Newton and Derek Carr in order.


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