By now, we have all heard the advice: You have to pick at least one 5-versus-12 upset and ride a double-digit seed to the Sweet 16. But if everyone in your pool is choosing the same underdog, there is no longer value to picking the upset.
To win your pool, you have to find the hidden value picks; merely copying the “national bracket” is rarely going to do the trick. That could mean going against the grain, but the key is finding good teams that might be underrated by the public.
By comparing the public’s pick percentages in ESPN’s Tournament Challenge with ESPN’s BPItournament projections, we can find the greatest value picks in the tournament. This year, there is value in picking Gonzaga, not Duke, to win the South Region and riding the opening-round winners into the round of 32.
Why pick Gonzaga?
Gonzaga is currently the most underrated team in the tournament; 47 percent of the public has picked the Bulldogs to make the Elite Eight, and only 21 percent of brackets have them in the Final Four.
Gonzaga is currently the most underrated team in the tournament; 47 percent of the public has picked the Bulldogs to make the Elite Eight, and only 21 percent of brackets have them in the Final Four.
But Gonzaga is the fourth-most likely team to make the Elite Eight (63 percent chance) and third-most likely to make the Final Four (43 percent chance) in BPI’s projections.
Not only does BPI reflect that Gonzaga is a strong No. 2 seed, but it also projects that the Bulldogs have one of the easiest paths to the Final Four. Gonzaga could face the weakest No. 7 seed (Iowa), second-weakest No. 3 seed (Iowa State) and weakest No. 1 seed (Duke) in the field, based on BPI rankings.
The main reason to pick Gonzaga, though, is because no one else is doing so. If Duke is knocked out of the tournament in an early round, something the Blue Devils have had a history of experiencing, more than half of your pool will likely lose one of its Final Four picks, which brings me to my next point . . .
Duke is overvalued
Duke is the most overvalued team in the tournament, with 54 percent of the public picking the Blue Devils to make the Final Four and 36 percent advancing them to the final. Kentucky is the only team that the public values more highly than Duke.
Duke is the most overvalued team in the tournament, with 54 percent of the public picking the Blue Devils to make the Final Four and 36 percent advancing them to the final. Kentucky is the only team that the public values more highly than Duke.
BPI is not nearly as high on the Blue Devils. They are the seventh-most likely team to reach the Final Four and have a 13 percent chance to make the title game, based on BPI’s projections.
Duke’s relatively weak projections are based off the fact it finished the season seventh in BPI -- two spots lower than Gonzaga and the lowest ranking of any No. 1 seed since 2007. Of the seven previous No. 1 seeds to finish outside of the BPI top-four, one made the Final Four and four did not make it past the Sweet 16.
If Duke were a strong No. 1 seed like Kentucky, the public’s high pick percentage would not be a red flag, but given Duke’s relative strength when compared with other teams in its bracket, the Blue Devils appear to be wildly overvalued.
Early upset picks
The most likely upset by a double-digit seed in the round of 64 is No. 10 Ohio State over No. 7 VCU. BPI projects that Ohio State is 58 percent likely to win that game. Yet 58 percent of public brackets are picking the Buckeyes, making it less valuable as an “upset” pick.
The most likely upset by a double-digit seed in the round of 64 is No. 10 Ohio State over No. 7 VCU. BPI projects that Ohio State is 58 percent likely to win that game. Yet 58 percent of public brackets are picking the Buckeyes, making it less valuable as an “upset” pick.
There are a number of round-of-64 games that provide value, though. The winner of the 11-seed opening-round games will likely be undervalued, with BYU, Davidson and Dayton all having more than a 45 percent chance of winning in the round of 64. Valparaiso and Georgia State are the most likely teams seeded 13th or worse to pull an upset and are being picked in less than 13 percent of brackets.
There is no perfect formula when it comes to picking your bracket, but by choosing the strong, undervalued teams in the tournament, you will give yourself the best chance to win your pool.
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