The 4-Point Play looks at the four analytics-based storylines that will make you smarter when watching Wednesday’s game between the Atlanta Hawks (10th in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index) and the Golden State Warriors (1st in BPI). Our BPI gives the Warriors a 75 percent chance of winning (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN):
1. The Warriors’ offense has been excellent all season but changed along the way. They are not getting to the line nearly as frequently (their free throw rate has dropped 21 percent since the first 10 games), but they also are turning the ball over a lot less often (their turnover rate has dropped by 28 percent since the first 10 games).
2. Defensively, the Warriors are still the best team in the league. They still would be the sixth-best team in the NBA if their offense was just average. But they are giving up two more points per 100 possessions since the first 10 games due to a steady rise in their opponents’ effective field goal percentage throughout the season.
3. The Hawks have significantly increased their fast-break points during the season. Through the first 20 games, only 10 percent of their points were scored on the fast break. In the past 20 games, the Hawks have scored 16 percent of their points off fast breaks.
4. With Kyle Korver on the floor, the Hawks score 111 points and allow 100 points per 100 possessions. Without him on the floor, the Hawks score 98 points and allow 99 points per 100 possessions. Korver has a net effect of 12 points per 100 possessions.
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