2015年3月15日星期日

Harvick favored in Phoenix

 Jonathan Ferrey/NASCAR/Getty ImagesKevin Harvick, winner last week at Las Vegas, is the projected favorite at Phoenix.
Here are the projections for Sunday’s Sprint Cup race at Phoenix. Our projection system takes into account, among other factors, drivers’ past performances at the current track, pre-race on-track activity (practices and qualifying) and probability of finishing the race. All of the data is then adjusted for the track type (in this case, a 1-mile tri-oval) and time of year. 

Vegas winner and defending Cup champion Kevin Harvick has won each of the last three races at Phoenix. Another win on Sunday would make him the third active driver to win four straight races at a track, joining Jimmie Johnson (Charlotte) and Dale Earnhardt Jr (Talladega). Harvick has six consecutive top-two finishes dating back to last season, and with another at Phoenix he would join Richard Petty and David Person as the only drivers to ever post seven consecutive top-two finishes. 

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has turned in three straight top-five finishes to start the season, one of just two drivers to do so (along with Harvick). Since 1990, only six drivers have started a season with four straight top fives, and none have continued that streak beyond the fourth race since Rusty Wallace in 1998. 

Joey Logano has 20 straight lead-lap finishes dating back to last season, which is one shy of the NASCAR Cup Series record held by Earnhardt Jr and Jeff Gordon. Logano has a decent chance to join them, as he’s finished in the top 10 in each of the past three Phoenix races. 

Logano won yesterday, and Sunday will try to pull off the Sprint Cup-XFINITY Series sweep for the first time in his career. Phoenix has been the site of three previous weekend sweeps: Jeff Burton (2000), Kevin Harivck (2006) and Carl Edwards (2010). 

Brad Keselowski has never won at Phoenix, but over the last three years has been one of the most consistent drivers at the track. In six races, he has finished between third and sixth five times, and finished 11th in the other race. His 5.5 average finish in the last six races there ranks behind only Kevin Harvick. In Keselowski’s first five starts there, his average finish was a 25.6.


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