Johnson projected to win in Las Vegas

 Jerry Markland/Getty ImagesJimmie Johnson won last week at Atlanta. Our projections have him making it two straight.

Las Vegas Predictor -- Top 20 Projections

Driver	Proj. Finish	Proj. Pts
Jimmie Johnson	1	47
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	2	43
Matt Kenseth	3	42
Carl Edwards	4	40
Joey Logano	5	41
Kevin Harvick	6	39
Kasey Kahne	7	37
Martin Truex Jr.	8	37
Jeff Gordon	9	36
Kyle Larson	10	35
Brad Keselowski	11	34
Ryan Newman	12	33
Tony Stewart	13	31
Austin Dillon	14	30
Paul Menard	15	29
Denny Hamlin	16	28
Greg Biffle	17	27
Clint Bowyer	18	26
Jamie McMurray	19	25
Brian Vickers	20	24

Here are the projections for Sunday’s Sprint Cup race at Las Vegas. Our projection system takes into account, among other factors, drivers’ past performances at the current track, prerace on-track activity (practices and qualifying) and probability of finishing the race. All the data is then adjusted for the track type (in this case, a 1.5-mile superspeedway) and time of year.

Jimmie Johnson picked up the win last week at Atlanta. It’s the fourth time in his Sprint Cup Series career that he has won in the first two races of the season. In each of the previous three instances, he went on to win at least five races and the championship. Johnson is projected to pick up back-to-back victories, as he won each of the final two practices this week and didn’t finish outside the top 10 in any prerace workout.

Jeff Gordon won the pole for the second time in three races this season but will start the race in the back of the field. He was involved in a wreck in practice that will force him into a backup car. He’ll go for his 21st career win after winning the pole (not including races for which qualifying was canceled), which would move him into sole possession for the fourth-most such wins all time.

There have been 12 races on 1.5-mile tracks over the past two seasons, and they’ve all been won by either a Hendrick driver, a Penske driver or Kevin Harvick (for Stewart-Haas Racing). Harvick has finished second in both races this season and has five straight top-two finishes dating back to last season. He showed the most raw speed on 1.5-mile tracks last season.

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