Top things to know: Seahawks at 49ers

 
AP Photo/Paul SpinelliThe Seahawks and 49ers will go face-to-face on Thanksgiving night

The Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers rekindle their rivalry on Thanksgiving night at 8:30 ET. One of these two teams have represented the NFC in the Super Bowl each of the last two seasons, but both trail the first-place Cardinals by two games in the NFC West. 

Here are some of the top things to know for the Thanksgiving nightcap. 

Home sweet home 

The home team has won all five meetings since the Seahawks drafted Russell Wilson in 2012, including the Seahawks' victory in the NFC Championship Game last season. 

Wilson and the Seahawks have struggled to score in San Francisco, averaging just 11.5 points per game in their last two road meetings. That’s compared to an average of 31.3 points in their three home meetings. 

In fact, in each of those five meetings, the road team failed to score more than 17 points. 

Crabtree vs. Sherman: The Rematch 

This is the teams’ first meeting since Richard Sherman’s passionate postgame interview criticizing Michael Crabtree following last season’s NFC Championship Game. 

Crabtree has zero touchdowns in nine career games against the Seahawks, and he has caught only 49.2 percent of his targets with six drops. Against other opponents, Crabtree has a 64.0 percent career catch rate. 

Sherman shut down Crabtree in their last meeting. Crabtree did not catch a pass on the right side of the field, where Sherman typically patrols. 

However, Sherman has not made as much of an impact on the stat sheet this season. The brash cornerback has just one interception this season after leading the league with eight last season. 

San Francisco second-half struggles 

The 49ers' offense is averaging just 20.7 points per game this season, the lowest total in the Jim Harbaugh era. The offense has been fine in the first half of games, scoring 155 points, seventh best in the NFL, but it has scored just 70 points in the second half. Only the New York Jets have fewer second-half points. 

Colin Kaepernick career vs. Seahawks
including playoffs

W-L	1-3
Comp pct	52.1%
Pass YPG	154.8
TD-Int	3-7
Total QBR	36.9

Colin Kaepernick in particular has struggled late in games. In the first half of games, he has thrown 11 touchdowns and two interceptions with a 70.9 Total QBR. His numbers plummet in the second half, as he’s thrown just four touchdowns with four interceptions and a 40.3 Total QBR. 

The second-half trend was also an issue in the 2013 NFC Championship Game. The 49ers were up 10-3 at halftime of that game before losing 23-17. Kaepernick went 11-for-19 with a passing touchdown and two interceptions in the second half of that game.

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Eagles zone reads keep Dallas off balance

Tom Pennington/Getty ImagesLeSean McCoy (25) ran away from the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.

There’s something about Thanksgiving that brings the best out of the Philadelphia Eagles. 

The Eagles are now 6-0 on Thanksgiving, the best record in NFL history for any team to play at least five Thanksgiving games. 

The Eagles got it done on the ground with a season-high 256 rushing yards, easily the most theDallas Cowboys have allowed in a game this season. 

LeSean McCoy led the way with 159 rushing yards, including a rushing touchdown in consecutive games for the first time since 2011. 
On the other side, the Cowboys -- who entered the week ranked second in rushing yards -- struggled running the ball against an Eagles rush defense that ranked in the middle of the pack. 

The Cowboys were held under 100 rushing yards for just the second time this season (as was DeMarco Murray, who had a season-low 73 rushing yards). The Cowboys are 0-2 this season when they have fewer than 100 rushing yards and 8-2 when they reach 100. 

Murray had just 20 carries against the Eagles, just one more than his season low. When Murray has at least 24 rushes this season, the Cowboys are 7-0. When he has fewer than 24, they’re now 1-4 this season. 

The Cowboys as a team had 25 rushes. Since Jason Garrett became the Cowboys head coach in 2011, they’re 14-1 when they have 30 or more rushes, 16-13 with 20-29 rushes, and just 2-14 when they run it fewer than 20 times. 

Eagles' rush attack 
In Mark Sanchez’s first three starts this season, the Eagles ran six zone-read rushes for 34 yards, including none in Week 12. 

But on Thursday, the Eagles had 21 zone-read rushes for 135 yards and two touchdowns. 

Mark Sanchez by Play Type This Season

	Play Action	No Play Action
Comp pct	69%	60%
Yds per att	9.2	7.4
TD-Int	6-1	2-5

The strong running attack helped Mark Sanchez on play-action plays. Sanchez was 6-of-9 for 61 yards and threw his only touchdown off play-action fakes, and he didn’t even attempt a non-play-action pass in the second half. 

Play action has been vital for Sanchez. The only quarterback this season with a worse touchdown-interception differential on non-play-action passes than Sanchez (-3) is Blake Bortles (-6). 

What happened to the Cowboys' offense? 
The Cowboys finished with 10 points, their fewest in a game since Week 2 of 2012 at Seattle (27-7 loss) and fewest in a home game since Week 16 of 2011 against the Eagles (20-7 loss). 

Tony Romo completed 5 of 10 passes under duress for 60 yards and two interceptions. Romo’s 10 attempts under duress were his most in a game this season. Romo had not thrown an interception under duress since the season-opening loss to the 49ers. 

Romo completed 3 of 12 passes with two interceptions on attempts more than 10 yards downfield, his worst completion percentage on such passes this season. Six of his incompletions were off target, including both of his interceptions. Romo’s six off-target throws downfield were his most since Week 12 of 2012 against the Redskins. 

Murray had zero rushes of at least 10 yards after having at least two such rushes in each game this season and a league-leading 38 entering the game, six more than any other player this season. 

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Rivalry week: Loss by top team looming?

Kevin C. Cox/Getty ImagesChris Davis’ return of a missed field goal gave Auburn an unlikely win over Alabama in 2013.

Auburn, Florida, Oregon State and Michigan … other than having had disappointing seasons in 2014, what do these teams have in common? Each is an underdog Saturday with a chance to play “spoiler” against its archrival in College Football Playoff contention. 

Underdogs' FPI Chances

Rivalry Game	Chance
Auburn at Alabama	31%
Florida at Florida State	27%
Michigan at Ohio State	12%
Oregon State vs. Oregon	10%
*60 percent chance at least 1 of 4 underdogs will win

According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), each of the teams in question has less than a 1-in-3 chance of winning this weekend. But none of these upsets would be impossible, and if you combine the four teams’ individual chances to win, it’s about 60 percent likely that at least one of these underdogs will shake up the College Football Playoff picture with an upset. 

Another thing these teams have in common is that they are used to being underdogs to their rivals, at least in recent years. 

Let’s see if there have been any upsets or close calls in the recent history of these rivalries that might provide perspective on what could happen Saturday … 

Can Auburn upset Alabama again?

Auburn vs. Alabama, Last 5 Seasons

	Chance*	Result
2014	31%	?
2013	30%	W, 34-28
2012	3%	L, 49-0
2011	8%	L, 42-14
2010	29%	W, 28-27
*According to FPI, before game

According to FPI, Auburn is 31 percent likely to beat Alabama, meaning the Tigers have less than a 1-in-3 chance to pull off the upset. This may sound bleak, but Auburn has actually overcome similar odds to win in two of the past four Iron Bowls. 

If Auburn were to upset Alabama again, the Tigers’ three wins with less than a 1-in-3 chance of winning against the same opponent would be the most such upsets of one team over another in the last five years, according to FPI. 

There are many cases of one team with two wins with less than a 1-in-3 chance over the same opponent since 2010, but none with three such upset wins. 

Florida looks for repeat of 2012

Florida vs. Florida State, Last 5 Seasons

	Chance*	Result
2014	27%	?
2013	11%	L, 37-7
2012	23%	W, 37-26
2011	40%	L, 21-7
2010	44%	L, 31-7
*According to FPI, before game

Florida has been the FPI underdog in its meetings against Florida State in each of the last four years and is again with a 27 percent chance to win Saturday. 

The Gators will be looking to pull an upset along the lines of what they did in 2012, defeating the Seminoles in Tallahassee despite having about a 1-in-4 chance of doing so, according to FPI. 

Michigan looking for more than moral victories 

According to FPI, Michigan has only a 12 percent chance to win Saturday afternoon in Columbus against heavily-favored Ohio State. 

Michigan vs. Ohio State, Last 5 Seasons

	Chance*	Result
2014	12%	?
2013	25%	L, 42-41
2012	41%	L, 26-21
2011	79%	W, 40-34
2010	7%	L, 37-7
* According to FPI before game

The Wolverines have been a reasonable underdog against the Buckeyes in each of the last few years (except 2011) but have managed to keep it close the last two meetings (when their chances of winning were 41 and 25 percent respectively). 

Despite being projected as a mismatch, last year’s game came down to Michigan losing by one after a failed go-ahead two-point conversion attempt with 32 seconds left. 

And so is Oregon State 
It’s a similar situation for Oregon State, having a 10 percent chance to upset Oregon on Saturday. 

Oregon State vs Oregon, Last 5 Seasons

	Chance*	Result
2014	10%	?
2013	11%	L, 36-35
2012	36%	L, 48-24
2011	4%	L, 49-21
2010	14%	L, 37-20
*According to FPI, before game

The Beavers haven’t been able to pull off the upset in any of the recent Civil War battles, with blowouts the norm when facing Chip Kelly's teams. 

But with a similar low chance to win last year as it has this year, Oregon State very nearly pulled off the upset, losing by one after a Marcus Mariotatouchdown pass with 29 seconds left. 

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