2015年4月23日星期四

Franchise Four: Greatest living players

One final post in our Franchise Four series. MLB.com has one final element in its promotion: Vote for the four greatest living players. That's it. Greatest. Not most iconic. Not best role models. The best players.
Eric Karabell and I debate the topic in the video, but I want to go a little more in-depth here. The odd thing about the MLB.com ballot is it presents only eight players to choose from. Here are the eight with their career wins above replacement as a starting point:
Hank Aaron: 142.6

Johnny Bench: 75.0

Barry Bonds: 162.4

Rickey Henderson: 110.8

Sandy Koufax: 49.0

Pedro Martinez: 84.0

Willie Mays: 156.2

Tom Seaver: 110.5
Let's examine these eight players.
Hank Aaron and Willie Mays

OK, nobody is going to debate these two.
Johnny Bench

While it's nice to see Bench getting recognized and while there's a good argument that he's the greatest catcher of all time, I don't know if you can squeeze him onto this list of eight, let alone consider him one of the top four. He was a superlative defensive catcher with a cannon for an arm, of course, and a two-time MVP winner, but he was also a .267 career hitter and, yes, batting average isn't the best stat to look it, but we're talking the greatest of the greatest here. Plus, is Bench a better choice than Yogi Berra if you wanted to include a catcher?
My guess is MLB wanted to represent all eras and Bench represents the 1970s, along with Seaver. You have Aaron and Mays for the '50s and '60s, Koufax for the '60s, Bench and Seaver for the '70s, Henderson for the '80s, Bonds for the '90s and Pedro for the 2000s.
I would have included Mike Schmidt over Bench ... although Schmidt also was a .267 hitter. The difference is Schmidt got on base more -- .380 OBP versus .342 -- and was as good at third base as Bench was at catching. Bench reached the majors at a young age and was worked heavily by the Reds, leading to an early decline. Schmidt won MVP Awards at ages 30, 31 and 36.


Barry Bonds

Are you surprised he was included on the ballot? Roger Clemens was left off and Alex Rodriguez was left off, but Bonds was included, which seems a little strange. Or simply: He was too good to leave off. Anyway, based on numbers alone, Bonds is up there with Babe Ruth and Mays as the best player ever. He was one of the best players ever before he reportedly started using PEDs after the 1998 season. I can understand the anti-Hall of Fame argument: That's an honor and if you elect him, you're honoring a guy who used drugs. But this is just a silly little promotional thing. You can't pretend he didn't put up the numbers. I mean, the dude hit .362/.609/.812 in 2004!
Rickey Henderson

One of the more remarkable achievements in the past few decades was Henderson scoring 146 runs in 143 games in 1985. He won 12 stolen bases titles -- the last coming at age 39, when he swiped 66 bases. With his ability to get on base (.401 career OBP), steal bases and hit for power (297 home runs), he scored more runs than any player in the history of the game. Certainly merits strong consideration as one of the four.
Sandy Koufax

This is the controversial guy on the ballot. Joe Posnanski already wrote a long diatribe against Koufax's inclusion. Quoting Joe:
  • He is not only on that list, he is -- at last check -- one of the Final Four. It’s a testament to the magnetism of Koufax and glamour of his time. Unfortunately, it has little to do with reality.
The mythology around Koufax is thick and wonderful. That mythology -- the classic windup, the high fastball and staggering curve, the no-hitters, the Vin Scully perfect game call, the World Series magic, the skipping a game for Yom Kippur, the Left Arm of God hype -- is at the core of my love of baseball. But when mythology starts crossing over into overkill like this, it seems less charming. Sandy Koufax is his own category of wonderful. But putting him on this list ahead of Bob Gibson, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson and especially Roger Clemens is pretty ridiculous.
Let’s look at it this way:
Koufax went 165-87 with an ERA+ of 131.
Now let’s add in the career of Johan Santana. Just add the whole career.
Koufax + Santana: 304-165, .648 win pct., 2.97 ERA, 133 ERA+, 50 shutouts, 4,384 K's, 5 Cy Youngs.

Clemens alone: 354-184, .658 win pct., 3.12 ERA, 143 ERA+, 46 shutouts, 4,672 K's, 7 Cy Youngs.
Yeah, that’s Clemens vs. Koufax AND Santana. Sure, I know people would prefer to forget Roger Clemens because of his public fight over steroid accusations. But Clemens wasn’t just a greater pitcher than Koufax. He was dramatically better.
Posnanski has a lot more numbers and analysis to check out. I wonder how much of the mythology has to do with Koufax's early retirement. He quit the game at the peak of his powers. There was no decline to witness. No Pedro-with-the-Phillies memories. We didn't see him pitching at 42 with an ERA over 4.00, like Maddux. He didn't hang on one more season with the Giants, as Johnson did to get his 300th win. Gibson had a 5.04 ERA his final year. But Koufax? He was dominant, he had several memorable World Series games when that was the biggest sporting event in the country and everyone watched and then he was done.


Pedro Martinez

A couple of years ago, I did a study on the best five-year pitching peaks since 1950 -- five years in a row, not the best five seasons of a pitcher's career. This tied into Koufax, who won five straight ERA titles in his final five seasons. That was the run that made him KOUFAX.
The top six, based on cumulative WAR:
6. Sandy Koufax, 1962-1966: 39.2

5. Greg Maddux, 1992-1996: 39.2

4. Roger Clemens, 1986-1990: 40.1

3. Robin Roberts, 1950-1954: 40.5

2. Pedro Martinez, 1997-2001: 41.4

1. Randy Johnson, 1998-2002: 42.2
Hmm, maybe the Big Unit should have been on the ballot?
Tom Seaver

Seaver does have the second most career WAR behind Clemens among living players, so he's a fine choice. He wasn't quite as dominant as Koufax, Clemens, Martinez or Johnson at their peaks, but he was so good for so long.
So, the four greatest? I think it's pretty clear. If you don't want to include Bonds, Clemens or Rodriguez, then it gets a lot closer and more complicated, with Henderson, Schmidt, Seaver, Johnson, Maddux, Frank Robinson and maybeAlbert Pujols, Joe Morgan or Cal Ripken fighting for the final two spots. (You know, I'm a little surprised Ripken or even Derek Jeter didn't make the ballot. If it's a popularity contest -- and thus, Koufax -- why not one of the iconic shortstops? But I digress.)
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