Jay LaPrete/APFrank Kaminsky has led Wisconsin to No. 2 in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.After defeating Ohio State 72-48 on Sunday -- the fourth-best win of the season, according to BPI’s Game Score (99.8) -- the Wisconsin Badgers moved up to second in BPI, behind theKentucky Wildcats.
Based on its BPI ranking, Wisconsin has the best chance of any team in the country (28 percent) to beat Kentucky on a neutral court.
The main reason for Wisconsin’s ranking is its efficiency. The Badgers rank second behind Kentucky in opponent-adjusted net efficiency, per KenPom.com, a measure of the points per 100 possessions by which a team outscores its opponents.
Wisconsin plays at the second-slowest pace among major-conference teams. But once a team’s performance is adjusted for opponents faced, no team is more efficient offensively than Wisconsin.
Despite ranking in the top four in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, Ken Pomeroy’s rankings and Jeff Sagarin's ratings, Wisconsin is projected to be a No. 2 seed by many analysts, including ESPN’s Joe Lunardi.
In most cases, Wisconsin would be a favorite in the NCAA tournament whether it is a No. 1 or 2 seed. There is one scenario, however, that would greatly affect Wisconsin’s chances of reaching the Final Four -- a No. 2 seed in Kentucky’s region.
According to Lunardi, there is a real possibility of Wisconsin and Kentucky landing in the same region; Kentucky is a lock to be the No. 1 overall seed and to play in the Midwest Region. As Lunardi notes, “They’ll put the top four teams in, and then even if Wisconsin is the leader of the 2s, they’re going to give Wisconsin geographic preference. That happens to be Cleveland.”
By applying BPI projections to Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, Wisconsin would have about a 1-in-4 chance of reaching the Final Four it were the No. 2 seed in Kentucky’s region. If the Badgers were to swap spots with any of the other projected No. 2 seeds, their chances of reaching the Final Four would rise by more than 15 percentage points to more than 40 percent.
Obviously, Wisconsin would prefer to receive one of the four No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament. As the fifth team on the S-curve, the Badgers should hope that the selection committee overlooks geographical preferences and places them in any region other than the Midwest. In any of those other regions, Wisconsin would be the strongest team in the region, based on BPI, and would be one of the top contenders to make it to Indianapolis for the Final Four.
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