Value picks key to bracket success

By now, we have all heard the advice: You have to pick at least one 5-versus-12 upset and ride a double-digit seed to the Sweet 16. But if everyone in your pool is choosing the same underdog, there is no longer value to picking the upset.

To win your pool, you have to find the hidden value picks; merely copying the “national bracket” is rarely going to do the trick. That could mean going against the grain, but the key is finding good teams that might be underrated by the public.

By comparing the public’s pick percentages in ESPN’s Tournament Challenge with ESPN’s BPItournament projections, we can find the greatest value picks in the tournament. This year, there is value in picking Gonzaga, not Duke, to win the South Region and riding the opening-round winners into the round of 32.

Why pick Gonzaga?
Gonzaga is currently the most underrated team in the tournament; 47 percent of the public has picked the Bulldogs to make the Elite Eight, and only 21 percent of brackets have them in the Final Four.

But Gonzaga is the fourth-most likely team to make the Elite Eight (63 percent chance) and third-most likely to make the Final Four (43 percent chance) in BPI’s projections.

Not only does BPI reflect that Gonzaga is a strong No. 2 seed, but it also projects that the Bulldogs have one of the easiest paths to the Final Four. Gonzaga could face the weakest No. 7 seed (Iowa), second-weakest No. 3 seed (Iowa State) and weakest No. 1 seed (Duke) in the field, based on BPI rankings.

The main reason to pick Gonzaga, though, is because no one else is doing so. If Duke is knocked out of the tournament in an early round, something the Blue Devils have had a history of experiencing, more than half of your pool will likely lose one of its Final Four picks, which brings me to my next point . . .

Duke is overvalued
Duke is the most overvalued team in the tournament, with 54 percent of the public picking the Blue Devils to make the Final Four and 36 percent advancing them to the final. Kentucky is the only team that the public values more highly than Duke.

BPI is not nearly as high on the Blue Devils. They are the seventh-most likely team to reach the Final Four and have a 13 percent chance to make the title game, based on BPI’s projections.

Duke’s relatively weak projections are based off the fact it finished the season seventh in BPI -- two spots lower than Gonzaga and the lowest ranking of any No. 1 seed since 2007. Of the seven previous No. 1 seeds to finish outside of the BPI top-four, one made the Final Four and four did not make it past the Sweet 16.

If Duke were a strong No. 1 seed like Kentucky, the public’s high pick percentage would not be a red flag, but given Duke’s relative strength when compared with other teams in its bracket, the Blue Devils appear to be wildly overvalued.

Early upset picks
The most likely upset by a double-digit seed in the round of 64 is No. 10 Ohio State over No. 7 VCU. BPI projects that Ohio State is 58 percent likely to win that game. Yet 58 percent of public brackets are picking the Buckeyes, making it less valuable as an “upset” pick.

There are a number of round-of-64 games that provide value, though. The winner of the 11-seed opening-round games will likely be undervalued, with BYU, Davidson and Dayton all having more than a 45 percent chance of winning in the round of 64. Valparaiso and Georgia State are the most likely teams seeded 13th or worse to pull an upset and are being picked in less than 13 percent of brackets.

There is no perfect formula when it comes to picking your bracket, but by choosing the strong, undervalued teams in the tournament, you will give yourself the best chance to win your pool.

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How seeding can affect Wisconsin's fate

 Jay LaPrete/APFrank Kaminsky has led Wisconsin to No. 2 in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.

After defeating Ohio State 72-48 on Sunday -- the fourth-best win of the season, according to BPI’s Game Score (99.8) -- the Wisconsin Badgers moved up to second in BPI, behind theKentucky Wildcats. 

Based on its BPI ranking, Wisconsin has the best chance of any team in the country (28 percent) to beat Kentucky on a neutral court. 

The main reason for Wisconsin’s ranking is its efficiency. The Badgers rank second behind Kentucky in opponent-adjusted net efficiency, per KenPom.com, a measure of the points per 100 possessions by which a team outscores its opponents. 

Best opponent-adjusted efficiency differential, this season

Kentucky	+33.5
Wisconsin	+29.6
Arizona	+29.1
Villanova	+28.2
Virginia	+27.7
Source: KenPom.com

Wisconsin plays at the second-slowest pace among major-conference teams. But once a team’s performance is adjusted for opponents faced, no team is more efficient offensively than Wisconsin. 

Despite ranking in the top four in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, Ken Pomeroy’s rankings and Jeff Sagarin's ratings, Wisconsin is projected to be a No. 2 seed by many analysts, including ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. 

In most cases, Wisconsin would be a favorite in the NCAA tournament whether it is a No. 1 or 2 seed. There is one scenario, however, that would greatly affect Wisconsin’s chances of reaching the Final Four -- a No. 2 seed in Kentucky’s region.

According to Lunardi, there is a real possibility of Wisconsin and Kentucky landing in the same region; Kentucky is a lock to be the No. 1 overall seed and to play in the Midwest Region. As Lunardi notes, “They’ll put the top four teams in, and then even if Wisconsin is the leader of the 2s, they’re going to give Wisconsin geographic preference. That happens to be Cleveland.” 

  

By applying BPI projections to Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, Wisconsin would have about a 1-in-4 chance of reaching the Final Four it were the No. 2 seed in Kentucky’s region. If the Badgers were to swap spots with any of the other projected No. 2 seeds, their chances of reaching the Final Four would rise by more than 15 percentage points to more than 40 percent. 

Obviously, Wisconsin would prefer to receive one of the four No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament. As the fifth team on the S-curve, the Badgers should hope that the selection committee overlooks geographical preferences and places them in any region other than the Midwest. In any of those other regions, Wisconsin would be the strongest team in the region, based on BPI, and would be one of the top contenders to make it to Indianapolis for the Final Four.

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Kentucky's 'D' great in every way

Five stats to know from No. 1 Kentucky's 58-50 win over No. 4 Louisville. 

1. Kentucky held Louisville to 25.9 percent shooting from the field. That's the worst single-game field-goal percentage for Louisville in the shot-clock era. The Cardinals were 8-of-24 from inside the paint. Montrezl Harrell was 4-of-7. The rest of the team was 4-of-17. 

Worst Single-Game FG Pct
Louisville Under Pitino

Sat.	Kentucky	25.9%
2008	vs Western Kentucky	26.8%
2006	Kentucky	27.0%
2002	at Cincinnati	27.4%
* Lost all 4 games

Louisville was also 2-of-13 on its second-chance opportunities. The Cardinals had averaged 19 second-chance points-per-game in the previous three games. 

2. Louisville had 15 baskets, but managed only one assist. We have 19 seasons worth of game-by-game data on ranked teams. The one assist is the fewest by any ranked team in that 19-season span and the fewest by Louisville in the shot-clock era. 

3. Since joining Kentucky in 2009-10, John Calipari has led the Wildcats to seven wins in eight games against Louisville, including three straight. Calipari is 12-9 against Rick Pitino. This was the 15th meeting of the two teams in which both were ranked in the AP Top 25. Kentucky is 14-1 in those games, 2-0 when both are ranked in the Top 5. 

4. Kentucky did have one streak stopped. The Wildcats had won each of their first 12 games by double figures, the first time they had done that in school history. 

5. According to BPI, Kentucky has a 33 percent chance to win out through the end of the regular season. Its toughest remaining game is at Georgia on March 3. The Wildcats have an 83 percent chance to win that one. They are not scheduled to face another ranked team this season.

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