Johnson projected to win in Las Vegas

 Jerry Markland/Getty ImagesJimmie Johnson won last week at Atlanta. Our projections have him making it two straight.

Las Vegas Predictor -- Top 20 Projections

Driver	Proj. Finish	Proj. Pts
Jimmie Johnson	1	47
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	2	43
Matt Kenseth	3	42
Carl Edwards	4	40
Joey Logano	5	41
Kevin Harvick	6	39
Kasey Kahne	7	37
Martin Truex Jr.	8	37
Jeff Gordon	9	36
Kyle Larson	10	35
Brad Keselowski	11	34
Ryan Newman	12	33
Tony Stewart	13	31
Austin Dillon	14	30
Paul Menard	15	29
Denny Hamlin	16	28
Greg Biffle	17	27
Clint Bowyer	18	26
Jamie McMurray	19	25
Brian Vickers	20	24

Here are the projections for Sunday’s Sprint Cup race at Las Vegas. Our projection system takes into account, among other factors, drivers’ past performances at the current track, prerace on-track activity (practices and qualifying) and probability of finishing the race. All the data is then adjusted for the track type (in this case, a 1.5-mile superspeedway) and time of year.

Jimmie Johnson picked up the win last week at Atlanta. It’s the fourth time in his Sprint Cup Series career that he has won in the first two races of the season. In each of the previous three instances, he went on to win at least five races and the championship. Johnson is projected to pick up back-to-back victories, as he won each of the final two practices this week and didn’t finish outside the top 10 in any prerace workout.

Jeff Gordon won the pole for the second time in three races this season but will start the race in the back of the field. He was involved in a wreck in practice that will force him into a backup car. He’ll go for his 21st career win after winning the pole (not including races for which qualifying was canceled), which would move him into sole possession for the fourth-most such wins all time.

There have been 12 races on 1.5-mile tracks over the past two seasons, and they’ve all been won by either a Hendrick driver, a Penske driver or Kevin Harvick (for Stewart-Haas Racing). Harvick has finished second in both races this season and has five straight top-two finishes dating back to last season. He showed the most raw speed on 1.5-mile tracks last season.

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18-year-old Elliott closes in on history

 
Nick Laham/NASCAR via Getty ImagesChase Elliott will try to join his father Bill as NASCAR champions.

Much of the attention in the stock car racing world has surrounded the new-format Chase, with drama, both on and off track. Meanwhile, over in the Nationwide Series, Chase Elliott has left little doubt through much of the second half of the season as to who was going to win that series’ title. 
But it’s important to note the history that Elliott is going to make. 

First, Elliott is 48 points ahead of JR Motorsports teammate Regan Smith heading to the penultimate race at Phoenix. Only 48 points can be made up in a single race, and given that Elliott would hold the tiebreaker, if he just maintains that lead at Phoenix, he wouldn’t even have to climb in the car at Homestead to lock up a championship. 

Elliott has finished ahead of Regan Smith in 21 of 31 races this season, and in each of the last five and eight of the last nine races. So, locking up the title this weekend seems to be likely. 

Here’s just a sampling of the history that Elliott would make if/when he clinches the title. 

Youth is Served

Youngest Series Champions
NASCAR National Series History

	Title	Age
Brian Vickers	2003 NNS	20
Rob Moroso	1989 NNS	21
Austin Dillon	2011 NCWTS	21
James Buescher	2012 NCWTS	22
Bill Rexford	1950 NSCS	23
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	1998 NNS	24
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	2011 NNS	24
Jeff Gordon	1995 NSCS	24
>>Chase Elliott: will be 18 years, 352 days old on final day of season

At 18 years old (he’ll turn 19 shortly after the season ends), he’ll become the first teenage champion in NASCAR National Series history (combining the Sprint Cup, Nationwide and Camping World Truck series). The previous youngest champion was Brian Vickers, who won the 2003 Nationwide (then Busch) Series title at 20 years, 22 days old. 

He’d also become the first rookie to win a NASCAR National Series championship. And although perennial fan favorite Dale Earnhardt Jr. is out of contention for the Sprint Cup Series championship, he could win his first as a team owner. 

Family Affair 
Speaking of Earnhardt, Chase would join his father, 1988 Cup Series champion Bill, as a father-son combination each with a National Series title. They’d be the first father-son combination to each win a National Series title since Dale Earnhardt and Dale Earnhardt Jr. 

The list of father-son duos to have done so are some of the most familiar names in NASCAR history. 

• Earnhardt: Dale Sr. won seven Cup titles; Dale Jr. won two Nationwide titles 
• Jarrett: Ned won two Cup titles; Dale won the 1999 Cup title 
• Pearson: David is a three-time Cup champion; Larry is a two-time Nationwide champion 
• Petty: Lee is a three-time Cup champion; Richard has seven Cup titles 

Best Rookie Season? 
Elliott has 15 top-five finishes this season, which is just one off the series single-season rookie record, set by Greg Biffle in 2001, Kyle Busch in 2004 and Austin Dillon in 2012. 

He also enters this weekend on a streak of 12 consecutive top-10 finishes, which is tied with Austin Dillon for the longest by a rookie in series history. 

Elliott also has three wins in his rookie season. Last season, all of the Nationwide Series points-eligible drivers combined for four. This season, only Cup regulars Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick have more wins than Elliott.

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Projections for Chase race at Martinsville

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Brian Lawdermilk/Getty ImagesJeff Gordon is the favorite to win at Martinsville on Sunday according to our projections

Driver	Proj Finish	Proj Pts
Jeff Gordon	1	47
Matt Kenseth	2	43
Denny Hamlin	3	42
Brad Keselowski	4	41
Joey Logano	5	40
Jimmie Johnson	6	39
Kevin Harvick	7	37
Clint Bowyer	8	36
Ryan Newman	9	36
Carl Edwards	10	34
Kyle Busch	11	34
Austin Dillon	12	32
Jamie McMurray	13	33
Brian Vickers	14	30
Kurt Busch	15	29
Justin Allgaier	16	28
AJ Allmendinger	17	27
Kasey Kahne	18	26
Paul Menard	19	25
Greg Biffle	20	24
Martin Truex Jr	21	23
Aric Almirola	22	22
Tony Stewart	23	22
Marcos Ambrose	24	20
Danica Patrick	25	19
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	26	18
Kyle Larson	27	17
Casey Mears	28	16
Michael Annett	29	15
David Ragan	30	14
Alex Bowman	31	13
Landon Cassill	32	12
David Gilliland	33	11
Dale Earnhardt Jr	34	10
Travis Kvapil	35	9
Cole Whitt	36	8
Reed Sorenson	37	7
JJ Yeley	38	6
Josh Wise	39	5
Timmy Hill	40	4
Kyle Fowler	41	3
Clay Rogers	42	2
Mike Wallace	43	1

Here are the projections for Sunday's Sprint Cup race at Martinsville. Our projection system takes into account, among other factors, drivers’ past performances at the current track, pre-race on-track activity (practices and qualifying) and probability of finishing the race. All of the data is then adjusted for the track type (in this case, a .526-mile oval) and time of year.

" The eight-driver Eliminator Round of the Chase begins at the shortest track on the circuit, Martinsville Speedway. A win for any of the remaining Chasers would clinch a spot in the Championship Round, where the highest finisher among the four remaining Chasers at Homestead will win the 2014 title.

" Jeff Gordon’s quest to become the third-oldest champion in NSCS history continues, and he could very well punch his ticket in the Championship Round on Sunday. Gordon is the reigning champion of this race and has eight career wins at Martinsville. A win would tie Jimmie Johnson (at Dover) for the most wins by an active driver at one track.

" In 10 previous years of the Chase, the eventual champion has finished no worse than sixth in the Martinsville Chase race, with four wins and a 2.9 average finish. Nine of the 10 eventual champions also led at least one lap in this race.

" 2012 NSCS champion Brad Keselowski punched his ticket to the Eliminator Round with a win last week at Talladega. A second-place finish would’ve eliminated him. It was Keselowski’s NSCS-leading sixth win of the season. Since 2009, any driver with at least six wins in a season has finished in the top two in points.

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