Harvick favored in Phoenix

 Jonathan Ferrey/NASCAR/Getty ImagesKevin Harvick, winner last week at Las Vegas, is the projected favorite at Phoenix.

Phoenix Predictor - Top 20 Projections

Driver	Proj Finish	Proj Pts
Kevin Harvick	1	48
Brad Keselowski	2	43
Joey Logano	3	42
Dale Earnhardt Jr	4	41
Matt Kenseth	5	40
Jeff Gordon	6	38
Carl Edwards	7	38
Kurt Busch	8	37
Denny Hamlin	9	35
Kasey Kahne	10	35
Jimmie Johnson	11	33
Kyle Larson	12	32
Ryan Newman	13	31
Jamie McMurray	14	31
Greg Biffle	15	29
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	16	28
Tony Stewart	17	27
Brian Vickers	18	26
Martin Truex Jr	19	26
Paul Menard	20	24

Here are the projections for Sunday’s Sprint Cup race at Phoenix. Our projection system takes into account, among other factors, drivers’ past performances at the current track, pre-race on-track activity (practices and qualifying) and probability of finishing the race. All of the data is then adjusted for the track type (in this case, a 1-mile tri-oval) and time of year. 

Vegas winner and defending Cup champion Kevin Harvick has won each of the last three races at Phoenix. Another win on Sunday would make him the third active driver to win four straight races at a track, joining Jimmie Johnson (Charlotte) and Dale Earnhardt Jr (Talladega). Harvick has six consecutive top-two finishes dating back to last season, and with another at Phoenix he would join Richard Petty and David Person as the only drivers to ever post seven consecutive top-two finishes. 

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has turned in three straight top-five finishes to start the season, one of just two drivers to do so (along with Harvick). Since 1990, only six drivers have started a season with four straight top fives, and none have continued that streak beyond the fourth race since Rusty Wallace in 1998. 

Joey Logano has 20 straight lead-lap finishes dating back to last season, which is one shy of the NASCAR Cup Series record held by Earnhardt Jr and Jeff Gordon. Logano has a decent chance to join them, as he’s finished in the top 10 in each of the past three Phoenix races. 

Logano won yesterday, and Sunday will try to pull off the Sprint Cup-XFINITY Series sweep for the first time in his career. Phoenix has been the site of three previous weekend sweeps: Jeff Burton (2000), Kevin Harivck (2006) and Carl Edwards (2010). 

Brad Keselowski has never won at Phoenix, but over the last three years has been one of the most consistent drivers at the track. In six races, he has finished between third and sixth five times, and finished 11th in the other race. His 5.5 average finish in the last six races there ranks behind only Kevin Harvick. In Keselowski’s first five starts there, his average finish was a 25.6.

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Johnson projected to win in Las Vegas

 Jerry Markland/Getty ImagesJimmie Johnson won last week at Atlanta. Our projections have him making it two straight.

Las Vegas Predictor -- Top 20 Projections

Driver	Proj. Finish	Proj. Pts
Jimmie Johnson	1	47
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	2	43
Matt Kenseth	3	42
Carl Edwards	4	40
Joey Logano	5	41
Kevin Harvick	6	39
Kasey Kahne	7	37
Martin Truex Jr.	8	37
Jeff Gordon	9	36
Kyle Larson	10	35
Brad Keselowski	11	34
Ryan Newman	12	33
Tony Stewart	13	31
Austin Dillon	14	30
Paul Menard	15	29
Denny Hamlin	16	28
Greg Biffle	17	27
Clint Bowyer	18	26
Jamie McMurray	19	25
Brian Vickers	20	24

Here are the projections for Sunday’s Sprint Cup race at Las Vegas. Our projection system takes into account, among other factors, drivers’ past performances at the current track, prerace on-track activity (practices and qualifying) and probability of finishing the race. All the data is then adjusted for the track type (in this case, a 1.5-mile superspeedway) and time of year.

Jimmie Johnson picked up the win last week at Atlanta. It’s the fourth time in his Sprint Cup Series career that he has won in the first two races of the season. In each of the previous three instances, he went on to win at least five races and the championship. Johnson is projected to pick up back-to-back victories, as he won each of the final two practices this week and didn’t finish outside the top 10 in any prerace workout.

Jeff Gordon won the pole for the second time in three races this season but will start the race in the back of the field. He was involved in a wreck in practice that will force him into a backup car. He’ll go for his 21st career win after winning the pole (not including races for which qualifying was canceled), which would move him into sole possession for the fourth-most such wins all time.

There have been 12 races on 1.5-mile tracks over the past two seasons, and they’ve all been won by either a Hendrick driver, a Penske driver or Kevin Harvick (for Stewart-Haas Racing). Harvick has finished second in both races this season and has five straight top-two finishes dating back to last season. He showed the most raw speed on 1.5-mile tracks last season.

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