Kentucky's 'D' great in every way

Five stats to know from No. 1 Kentucky's 58-50 win over No. 4 Louisville. 

1. Kentucky held Louisville to 25.9 percent shooting from the field. That's the worst single-game field-goal percentage for Louisville in the shot-clock era. The Cardinals were 8-of-24 from inside the paint. Montrezl Harrell was 4-of-7. The rest of the team was 4-of-17. 

Worst Single-Game FG Pct
Louisville Under Pitino

Sat.	Kentucky	25.9%
2008	vs Western Kentucky	26.8%
2006	Kentucky	27.0%
2002	at Cincinnati	27.4%
* Lost all 4 games

Louisville was also 2-of-13 on its second-chance opportunities. The Cardinals had averaged 19 second-chance points-per-game in the previous three games. 

2. Louisville had 15 baskets, but managed only one assist. We have 19 seasons worth of game-by-game data on ranked teams. The one assist is the fewest by any ranked team in that 19-season span and the fewest by Louisville in the shot-clock era. 

3. Since joining Kentucky in 2009-10, John Calipari has led the Wildcats to seven wins in eight games against Louisville, including three straight. Calipari is 12-9 against Rick Pitino. This was the 15th meeting of the two teams in which both were ranked in the AP Top 25. Kentucky is 14-1 in those games, 2-0 when both are ranked in the Top 5. 

4. Kentucky did have one streak stopped. The Wildcats had won each of their first 12 games by double figures, the first time they had done that in school history. 

5. According to BPI, Kentucky has a 33 percent chance to win out through the end of the regular season. Its toughest remaining game is at Georgia on March 3. The Wildcats have an 83 percent chance to win that one. They are not scheduled to face another ranked team this season.

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Bears have issues with pass on both sides

Even though the Chicago Bears are eliminated from postseason contention, they got some national attention on Wednesday. 

ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter reported that the team is planning a starting quarterback switch from Jay Cutler to Jimmy Clausen. The Bears have not made an announcement related to a potential move. 

Cutler posted a 6.8 Total QBR and was sacked seven times in Monday night’s loss to the Saints. It was the second-worst quarterbacking performance of the week, better than only Johnny Manziel. 

Can't Always Get What You Want...
Highest Paid QB, Last 3 Seasons

		QBR Rank<<
2014	Jay Cutler	21st
2013	Aaron Rodgers	6th
2012	Drew Brees	8th
*During season as highest-paid QB

It was also the second time in six weeks that Cutler posted a Total QBR below 7.0 and the third time in that span in which he had a Total QBR lower than 25. 

Cutler had a 59.0 Total QBR through Week 11, which ranked 15th-best in the NFL. His Total QBR since then is 43.6, which ranks 21st. 

The cash value of Cutler’s contract this season is $22.5 million. That’s the highest in the NFL for a player who leads the league in both interceptions (18) and turnovers (24). 

Cutler has averaged a turnover every 33.3 snaps. The average NFL quarterback averages a turnover for every 65.3 snaps. 

The replacement 
Clausen hasn’t started a game since the 2010 season and the reason is likely due to his ineffectiveness then. Clausen went 1-9 as a starter for the Panthers that season. In those 10 games, he threw three touchdowns and nine interceptions, posting a league-worst Total QBR of 11.0 

In fact, that Total QBR is the lowest season-ending QBR for a quarterback for any of the nine seasons in which that stat has been tracked. 

Far from the only thing wrong 
The problems for the Bears have been magnified in recent weeks because of the team’s struggles. 

The other big issue they’re currently dealing with is that they can’t stop anyone. They lead the NFL with 409 points allowed. 

Their defense added a league-leading 7.6 expected points per game in 2012. Last year they fell all the way to 30th, costing the team about 6.6 expected points per game. They are again 30th this year, costing the team about 7.3 expected points per game. 

Opposing quarterbacks have completed 67.6 percent of their passes against the Bears this season, the second-highest completion percentage in the NFL. Their 3,811 passing yards allowed are the second-most of any team. They’ve allowed 33 touchdown passes, most in the NFL. 

Teams have exposed the Bears secondary with intermediate-length passes. The Bears have allowed 48 completions on throws 11 to 15 yards downfield, the most in the NFL. Opponents have completed 59 percent of passes thrown at least 11 yards downfield, the worst percentage for a defense this season. 

Opponents are putting up big numbers outside the numbers. They've allowed 18 touchdowns on such throws, one fewer than the team with the most, the Steelers. 

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Power Rankings: Sanchez boosts Eagles

 
Getty ImagesJordan Matthews and Mark Sanchez have formed a productive combination.

The Philadelphia Eagles were No. 5 in the weekly ESPN.com NFL Power Rankings before Nick Foles’ injury. Since then, the Eagles have improved to No. 4 in the rankings with Mark Sanchezas quarterback. 

The Eagles are 3-1 and averaging six more points per game in Sanchez’s starts this season, but are they really better with him at quarterback? The numbers say yes, but with games against the Seahawks and Cowboys the next two weeks, those numbers will be put to the test. 

Offense moving better 
Under Sanchez, the Eagles’ offense has been better at finishing drives and limiting turnovers. Granted, the Eagles still lead the NFL in turnovers this season (28); they were averaging more than 2.6 per game in Foles’ starts this season. In Sanchez’s starts, that rate has dipped below 2.0 (1.8). 

Fewer turnovers mean more opportunities to score, and Sanchez has been able to convert. The Eagles are scoring on nearly half of their drives with Sanchez after scoring on one-third of their drives with Foles. 

Eagles’ Drives by QB – This Season

	Foles	Sanchez
Pts per drive	1.7	2.4
Red zone effic	35%	52%
Score pct	33%	47%
TO pct	19%	15%

Not only is the Eagles’ offense scoring more frequently under Sanchez, but they’re scoring more touchdowns as well, especially in the red zone. 

The Eagles scored a touchdown on 35 percent of their red zone drives under Foles, which would be the lowest in the NFL this season (49ers currently are lowest: 39 percent). Under Sanchez, the Eagles are closer to the league average (55 percent), scoring a touchdown on 52 percent of their red zone drives. 

But why is Sanchez doing better? 
Sanchez may be working the Chip Kelly offense more to design than Foles had been this season. Sanchez is getting rid of the ball quicker, throwing shorter and getting more yards after the catch than Foles was. 

Sanchez’s passes have been thrown an average of 2.45 seconds after the snap this season, quicker than Foles’ 2.73-second average. The difference might seem minimal, but of the 39 quarterbacks with 100 passes this season, Sanchez’s time from snap to release ranks as the 11th-quickest. Foles’ ranks 33rd. 

Eagles’ QB Comparison - This Season

	Foles	Sanchez
Comp pct	59.8%	63.4%
Yds per att	7.0	8.0
Air yds per att	9.3	8.1
YAC per comp	5.3	6.1

One of Foles’ biggest faults this season was his deep passing. Foles threw the ball at least 30 yards past the line of scrimmage 22 times this season. He hasn’t played since Week 9, and that’s still within three of the league lead. Foles completed four of those passes (18.2 percent), and although three of those were touchdowns, he also had four interceptions deep. 

Sanchez has done a better job of picking his spots, going 3-of-6 on passes thrown at least 30 yards downfield with no interceptions. And by picking his spots better and getting the ball out quicker, Sanchez has been more effective passing to the Eagles’ biggest play-making receivers. 

Targeting Jeremy Maclin,
Jordan Matthews This Season

	Foles	Sanchez
Comp pct	55.9%	74.0%
Yds per att	7.7	10.9
TD-Int	9-6	7-1
Total QBR	75.5	98.6

Sanchez has completed 74.0 percent of his passes to Jeremy Maclin and Jordan Matthews this season after Foles completed 55.9 percent of his passes to the duo. Sanchez has especially taken a liking to Matthews, who has caught five of his eight pass touchdowns this season. Matthews had two touchdowns with Foles at quarterback.

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Rivalry week: Loss by top team looming?

Kevin C. Cox/Getty ImagesChris Davis’ return of a missed field goal gave Auburn an unlikely win over Alabama in 2013.

Auburn, Florida, Oregon State and Michigan … other than having had disappointing seasons in 2014, what do these teams have in common? Each is an underdog Saturday with a chance to play “spoiler” against its archrival in College Football Playoff contention. 

Underdogs' FPI Chances

Rivalry Game	Chance
Auburn at Alabama	31%
Florida at Florida State	27%
Michigan at Ohio State	12%
Oregon State vs. Oregon	10%
*60 percent chance at least 1 of 4 underdogs will win

According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), each of the teams in question has less than a 1-in-3 chance of winning this weekend. But none of these upsets would be impossible, and if you combine the four teams’ individual chances to win, it’s about 60 percent likely that at least one of these underdogs will shake up the College Football Playoff picture with an upset. 

Another thing these teams have in common is that they are used to being underdogs to their rivals, at least in recent years. 

Let’s see if there have been any upsets or close calls in the recent history of these rivalries that might provide perspective on what could happen Saturday … 

Can Auburn upset Alabama again?

Auburn vs. Alabama, Last 5 Seasons

	Chance*	Result
2014	31%	?
2013	30%	W, 34-28
2012	3%	L, 49-0
2011	8%	L, 42-14
2010	29%	W, 28-27
*According to FPI, before game

According to FPI, Auburn is 31 percent likely to beat Alabama, meaning the Tigers have less than a 1-in-3 chance to pull off the upset. This may sound bleak, but Auburn has actually overcome similar odds to win in two of the past four Iron Bowls. 

If Auburn were to upset Alabama again, the Tigers’ three wins with less than a 1-in-3 chance of winning against the same opponent would be the most such upsets of one team over another in the last five years, according to FPI. 

There are many cases of one team with two wins with less than a 1-in-3 chance over the same opponent since 2010, but none with three such upset wins. 

Florida looks for repeat of 2012

Florida vs. Florida State, Last 5 Seasons

	Chance*	Result
2014	27%	?
2013	11%	L, 37-7
2012	23%	W, 37-26
2011	40%	L, 21-7
2010	44%	L, 31-7
*According to FPI, before game

Florida has been the FPI underdog in its meetings against Florida State in each of the last four years and is again with a 27 percent chance to win Saturday. 

The Gators will be looking to pull an upset along the lines of what they did in 2012, defeating the Seminoles in Tallahassee despite having about a 1-in-4 chance of doing so, according to FPI. 

Michigan looking for more than moral victories 

According to FPI, Michigan has only a 12 percent chance to win Saturday afternoon in Columbus against heavily-favored Ohio State. 

Michigan vs. Ohio State, Last 5 Seasons

	Chance*	Result
2014	12%	?
2013	25%	L, 42-41
2012	41%	L, 26-21
2011	79%	W, 40-34
2010	7%	L, 37-7
* According to FPI before game

The Wolverines have been a reasonable underdog against the Buckeyes in each of the last few years (except 2011) but have managed to keep it close the last two meetings (when their chances of winning were 41 and 25 percent respectively). 

Despite being projected as a mismatch, last year’s game came down to Michigan losing by one after a failed go-ahead two-point conversion attempt with 32 seconds left. 

And so is Oregon State 
It’s a similar situation for Oregon State, having a 10 percent chance to upset Oregon on Saturday. 

Oregon State vs Oregon, Last 5 Seasons

	Chance*	Result
2014	10%	?
2013	11%	L, 36-35
2012	36%	L, 48-24
2011	4%	L, 49-21
2010	14%	L, 37-20
*According to FPI, before game

The Beavers haven’t been able to pull off the upset in any of the recent Civil War battles, with blowouts the norm when facing Chip Kelly's teams. 

But with a similar low chance to win last year as it has this year, Oregon State very nearly pulled off the upset, losing by one after a Marcus Mariotatouchdown pass with 29 seconds left. 

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