Ezra Shaw/Getty ImagesPressure on Marcus Mariota has been vital to Stanford's ability to contain Oregon's potent offense.
How do you stop Oregon's high-octane offense?
Stanford appears to have found the formula for success, holding Oregon to two of its three lowest-scoring outputs since the start of the 2012 season.
Three keys for Stanford in the past two seasons have been limiting Oregon’s designed running game, pressuring quarterback Marcus Mariota, and forcing the Ducks into third-and-long situations.
Limiting Oregon’s Run Game
Since the start of the 2012 season, Oregon ranks second in the FBS in yards per rush (5.9) and rushing touchdowns (112).
Against Stanford, however, the Ducks’ rushing attack has been stymied, totaling one touchdown in the past two meetings. The Ducks have averaged 3.5 such touchdowns per game against all other opponents during that time.
When looking at designed rushes, Oregon has gained 122 and 77 yards in its past two games against Stanford; the Ducks have had at least 150 such yards in 31 of their 32 games against all other opponents.
One key to stopping Oregon’s designed run game has been funneling the Ducks inside the tackles. Since the start of 2013, Oregon is averaging 7.4 yards per designed run outside of the tackles (fifth among Power 5 schools) and 5.3 inside the tackles (16th among Power 5 schools).
Oregon was held to a season-low six carries and 30 yards outside the tackles last year against Stanford. In every other game, the Ducks had at least 13 carries and 50 yards to the outside (averaged 18 for 145). In 2012, the Cardinal were also able to funnel Oregon inside as they held the Ducks to season lows in yards (29), first downs (2) and 10-yard rushes (zero) outside of the tackles.
Pressuring Mariota
Marcus Mariota has a Total QBR of 67.0 in the two matchups against Stanford, compared with an 87.8 career Total QBR.
The Cardinal have done a great job of putting Mariota under duress. He has been pressured on 29 percent of his dropbacks against Stanford, and 17 percent against all other opponents.
When under duress against Stanford, Mariota is averaging fewer than 3 yards per play and has been sacked six times.
Forcing Oregon into third-and-long
Stanford has won third downs. Oregon, which ranks at the top of the conference in third-down conversions since the start of the 2012 season (47 percent), has converted 26 percent of its third downs against the Cardinal in its past two meetings.
More than the Ducks' other opponents, Stanford has been able to force them into third-and-long situations. They have needed eight or more yards on 14 of their 27 (52 percent) third downs against Stanford. Although Oregon’s average third-down distance to go is not significantly lower against other opponents (7.1 to 6.9), it has had eight or more yards to go on a much lower percentage of third-down plays (39 percent).
Given the difficult situations and the strength of Stanford’s defense, Mariota has struggled against Stanford on third down, posting a 29.7 third-down QBR and gaining a first down on 36 percent of his plays.
Can Stanford do it again Saturday? Despite losing first-team All-Pac-12 members Ben Gardner, Trent Murphy, Shayne Skov andEd Reynolds, in addition to defensive coordinator Derek Mason to Vanderbilt, Stanford’s defense still has been one of the best in college football. The Cardinal rank second in FBS in opponent points per game (12.5), second in yards per game (250.6) and first in yards per play (3.7).
The biggest difference for Stanford, however, is on offense. In their previous meetings, the Cardinal have been able to run the ball to keep Oregon’s offense off the field. They have had the ball almost twice as long as the Ducks the past two seasons, including for 42 minutes, 34 seconds in 2013. Stanford’s run game has been able to move the chains and keep the clock ticking (274 rushing yards last season).
This year, Stanford ranks 90th in the FBS in rushing yards per game and does not have a workhorse back like Tyler Gaffney or Stepfan Taylor. The Cardinal were held below 3.5 yards per rush in each of their losses this season.
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USA TODAY SportsTonight's matchup of Tim Hudson, left, and Jeremy Guthrie will be the oldest for Game 7 starters.
The Giants and Royals meet in the seventh and deciding game of the World Series tonight at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. Here are the stats you need to know before the teams take the field:
Odds are with the Giants
• According to numberFire simulations, the Giants have a 54.7 percent chance to win tonight's Game 7.
• According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Royals are the 61st team to trail 3-2 in the World Series.
• Like the Royals, 60.7 percent of them have forced a Game 7 (37 of 61).
• However, just 31.7 percent of them have won both Games 6 and 7 to win the series (19 of 60).
History is on the Royals' side
• The last nine times the World Series went a full seven games, the home team prevailed. The last time a road team celebrated a Game 7 win was the 1979 “We Are Family” Pirates, who won Game 7 at Baltimore’s Memorial Stadium -- a facility demolished in 2002.
• The last seven World Series teams to force Game 7 by winning Game 6 at home won the title. The last to lose was the 1975 Red Sox, who lost the follow-up to Carlton Fisk’s dramatic Game 6 home run.
• As a franchise, the Royals have won their last four World Series elimination games, dating back to a 6-1 win over the Cardinals in Game 5 of the 1985 World Series.
• In those games, including Tuesday night’s Game 6, Kansas City has outscored its opponent 29-2.
Eldest Game 7 matchup
• According to the Elias Sports Bureau, tonight’s matchup between San Francisco’s Tim Hudsonand Kansas City’s Jeremy Guthrie is the oldest combined meeting of Game 7 starting pitchers in World Series history.
• At 39 years, 107 days old, Hudson is 15 days older than the previous elder statesman of Game 7 starters, Roger Clemens, who set the mark with a no-decision for the Yankees against the Diamondbacks in a 2001 loss.
• Elias also tells us that Hudson, who went 9-13 during the 2014 regular season, has the lowest winning percentage (.409) of any starter in a winner-take-all game in World Series history. Only four other pitchers to pitch this type of game even had a losing record during the preceding regular season: Johnny Podres in 1955 (9–10, .474), Jon Matlack in 1973 (14–16, .467), Hal Gregg in 1947 (4–5, .444) andLiván Hernández in 2002 (12–16, .429).
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MCT via Getty ImagesFlorida State quarterback Jameis Winston will face a tough Louisville defense Thursday night on ESPN
Jameis Winston is 20-0 as a starter and the driving force behind Florida State’s ACC- and school-record 23-game win streak. Last season, Winston became the third starting quarterback since 1950 to go undefeated, win a national championship and take home the Heisman Trophy in the same season. His efficiency, especially when under pressure, had a lot to do with that success.
But Winston has never faced a pass defense like Louisville’s. Every opponent he faced last season finished the season outside the top 25 in defensive efficiency on passing plays and this season every opponent he has faced is currently ranked outside the top 40.
Louisville, on the other hand, leads the nation in that stat, adding about 13 points per game to its net scoring margin as a result of its defense on passing plays. The Cardinals have allowed the lowest Total QBR in the nation and only NC State’s Jacoby Brissett has posted a raw QBR above 25 against them (0-100 scale, 50 is average).
When Winston matches up with Louisville’s defense Thursday night on ESPN, it will be strength versus strength, and one of the two will have to give. Will it be the reigning Heisman winner or the nation’s best defense in terms of Total QBR?
To help answer that question, we break down the areas in which Winston excels and how Louisville’s defense matches up.
Third Down
Winston has converted a first down on 53 percent of his third-down passing plays in his career, on pace to be the best for any FBS quarterback in the last 10 seasons (min. 10 games started). His career third-down Total QBR (96) is the highest for any active player and second to only Johnny Manziel’s.
Louisville is allowing the second-lowest third-down conversion percentage in the FBS at 24 percent. The Cardinals have an FBS-high seven interceptions on third down, which is more than 57 FBS teams have on all downs combined.
One player Winston might want to stay away from is Louisville safety Gerod Holliman, who has four interceptions and one forced fumble on third down. Holliman and Ole Miss’Senquez Golson lead the FBS in third-down interceptions.
Downfield
Winston can make all the throws. He has completed 51 percent of his passes thrown 15 yards or more downfield during his career, best for an ACC quarterback with at least 50 attempts since the start of the 2012 season (first year we have air yard data). Winston has the most touchdowns (22) and completions (86) for any player in the ACC since the start of last season on such throws.
One problem is that Winston has a history of turning the ball over when passing downfield. Since the start of last season, the only Power 5 player with more interceptions on passes thrown 15 yards or longer than Winston is Washington State’s Connor Halliday.
That could be bad news against a Louisville defense that is tied with Ole Miss for the most interceptions among Power 5 schools on passes thrown 15 yards or more from the line of scrimmage with 10.
Blitz
Since the start of the 2013 season, Winston has thrown a Power 5-high 26 touchdowns against five or more pass rushers. Winston has been even better against the blitz in his last two games, completing 19-of-22 passes with five touchdowns and no interceptions.
Louisville has not blitzed often under first-year defensive coordinator Todd Grantham. They have sent five or more pass rushers on 21 percent of opponent dropbacks, six percentage points lower than the average for a Power 5 defense.
When they do blitz, the Cardinals have been successful, allowing 3.4 yards per dropback, seventh-best among Power 5 schools and two yards better than the Power 5 average.
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Jamie Squire/Getty ImagesThe World Series returns to Kansas City on Tuesday night for Game 6. The Giants lead the series 3-2.
The San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals will meet in Game 6 of the World Series Tuesday night, with the Giants trying to wrap up another title and the Royals trying to keep their magical season alive.
What's at stake
The Giants are trying to win their third World Series in the last five seasons. They’d be the fifth franchise to do that and the first since the Yankees in 1996-2000.
The Royals are trying to do what they did in their last World Series appearance in 1985: win Game 6 to force a Game 7.
Getting to Game 7 has a significant historical meaning.
The home team has won nine straight Game 7s in the World Series. The last team to win Game 7 on the road was the 1979 Pirates in Baltimore.
Jake Peavy stats to know:
Jake Peavy, who will start Game 6 for the Giants, has a 7.05 ERA in his postseason career. That is the highest postseason ERA among active pitchers and the second highest all time (minimum 35 innings pitched).
Including Game 2 of this World Series, Peavy is 1-6 lifetime at Kauffman Stadium with a 6.50 ERA and 1.69 WHIP.
Yordano Ventura stats to know:
The Royals are 3-0 in games started this postseason by Yordano Ventura, who gets the start Tuesday night.
Ventura had the fastest average fastball velocity among starters this season at 96.8 mph.
But the Giants have had success against heaters this postseason. The Giants are hitting .319 against pitches of 95 mph or faster this postseason, best among playoff teams, including 6-for-16 (.375) against Ventura in Game 2.
Keep an eye on: Giants versus pitches out of strike zone
One of the advantages the Giants hold in this series is success against pitches out of the strike zone.
Giants batters are hitting .270 with 17 hits on pitches out of the zone, compared to .167 with 10 hits for the Royals.
The Giants have done so without going considerably beyond their means. They chased 31 percent of pitches out of the strike zone during the regular season. Their chase percentage in this series is 32 percent.
Pablo Sandoval has four hits against pitches out of the strike zone this series. That’s not unusual. He had a major league best 70 such hits during the regular season.
But some of Sandoval’s success seems to have rubbed off on his teammates. Seven of his teammates have a hit against an out-of-the-zone pitch this series, including Brandon Crawford, whose second such hit scored Sandoval in the fourth inning of Game 5.
Why is that notable?
Crawford had only eight hits against pitches out of the strike zone during the regular season, tied for the fewest in the majors among the 150 players who saw the most out-of-zone pitches in 2014.
Also watch: Royals bats don't have the same pop in World Series
The Royals are hitting .221 in the Series. Left fielder Alex Gordon is among those struggling most, with only two hits in 20 at-bats. But he's 10-for-30 (.333 batting average) in his career against Peavy.
One batter Peavy has handled is Eric Hosmer, holding him to four hits in 22 at-bats. Hosmer, who was hitting .448 (13-for-29) this postseason entering the World Series, is hitting .263 (5-for-19) in five games against the Giants.
Stat of the night: Shutout in Game 5 is reason to celebrate
Since World War II, five pitchers have thrown a shutout in Game 5 of a World Series tied 2-2. Madison Bumgarner is the most recent to do so.
In the previous four instances (each of which happened more than 40 years ago), each pitcher's team lost Game 6, but won the Series in the final game.
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Norm Hall/Getty ImagesThe Arizona Cardinals climb to No. 2 in the ESPN.com NFL power rankings for Week 9
At 6-1, the Arizona Cardinals have ascended to the No. 2 spot in the weekly ESPN.com NFL Power Rankings. This is the highest spot the Cardinals have ever earned in these rankings, which dates back to 2002.
The Cardinals are off to their best start in 40 years, when the St. Louis Cardinals started the 1974 season at 7-0. Dating back to Week 8 of last season, the Cardinals are 13-3, which is tied with the Denver Broncos for the best record in the NFL during that span. In fact, the Cardinals only loss this season came to the Broncos, who are currently No. 1 in the power rankings.
What is fueling the hot start for the Cardinals? A little bit of everything.
Turnovers
Only the New England Patriots (+11) have a better turnover differential than the Cardinals (+9) this season. The Cardinals have forced 14 turnovers this season, which is four shy of the NFL lead, but they’ve also limited their own mistakes. Only the Broncos (4) have committed fewer turnovers than the Cardinals (5) this season.
The lack of turnovers stems from quarterback play. Carson Palmer has thrown one interception on 154 attempts this season after throwing 22 last season. Even when he missed time, his backups Drew Stanton and Logan Thomas did not throw a single interception.
This has led to the Cardinals yielding only 10 points off turnovers this season, tied for best in the NFL.
Andre Ellington
Andre Ellington gives the Cardinals a versatile option out of the backfield, something they have not had in a long time.
Ellington has accounted for 31 percent of the Cardinals’ yards from scrimmage this season, fifth-highest in the NFL. The last two Cardinals running backs to even account for at least 25 percent of the offense were Edgerrin James in 2006 (26 percent) and Marcel Shipp in 2002 (26 percent).
Rush defense
The Cardinals rank third in the NFL this season in both rush yards per game allowed and yards per rush allowed. The Philadelphia Eagles in Week 8 were the first team to record 100 rush yards in a game against the Cardinals since Week 16 of last season.
Since Todd Bowles took over as the Cardinals defensive coordinator in 2013, the team ranks first in rush yards per game allowed and second in yards per rush allowed.
The blitz
Another key to Bowles’ defense has been blitzing. The Cardinals have blitzed on an NFL-high 47 percent of dropbacks the last two seasons.
It has been a boom or bust strategy for the Cardinals, especially this season, but the blitz has come up big late in games this year.
In two of the biggest wins for the Cardinals this season, their opponents had one final possession needing a score. In Week 1, Philip Rivers was trying to drive the San Diego Chargers downfield trailing by one. The Cardinals blitzed on all five plays of that drive, forcing three straight incompletions and a turnover on downs.
In Week 8, the Eagles need a touchdown and reached the Cardinals 16-yard line with 13 seconds remaining. The Cardinals blitzed on Nick Foles ’ last two attempts, putting him under duress and forcing incompletions.
Special teams
Not to be forgotten, Cardinals rookie kicker Chandler Catanzaro has made all 16 of his field goal attempts to start this season. That’s tied with veteran Adam Vinatieri for most makes without a miss this season.
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