Victory Eagle Sports Wear: 2014

2014年12月28日星期日

Kentucky's 'D' great in every way

Five stats to know from No. 1 Kentucky's 58-50 win over No. 4 Louisville.

1. Kentucky held Louisville to 25.9 percent shooting from the field. That's the worst single-game field-goal percentage for Louisville in the shot-clock era. The Cardinals were 8-of-24 from inside the paint. Montrezl Harrell was 4-of-7. The rest of the team was 4-of-17.

Worst Single-Game FG Pct
Louisville Under Pitino

Sat.	Kentucky	25.9%
2008	vs Western Kentucky	26.8%
2006	Kentucky	27.0%
2002	at Cincinnati	27.4%
* Lost all 4 games

Louisville was also 2-of-13 on its second-chance opportunities. The Cardinals had averaged 19 second-chance points-per-game in the previous three games.

2. Louisville had 15 baskets, but managed only one assist. We have 19 seasons worth of game-by-game data on ranked teams. The one assist is the fewest by any ranked team in that 19-season span and the fewest by Louisville in the shot-clock era.

3. Since joining Kentucky in 2009-10, John Calipari has led the Wildcats to seven wins in eight games against Louisville, including three straight. Calipari is 12-9 against Rick Pitino. This was the 15th meeting of the two teams in which both were ranked in the AP Top 25. Kentucky is 14-1 in those games, 2-0 when both are ranked in the Top 5.

4. Kentucky did have one streak stopped. The Wildcats had won each of their first 12 games by double figures, the first time they had done that in school history.

5. According to BPI, Kentucky has a 33 percent chance to win out through the end of the regular season. Its toughest remaining game is at Georgia on March 3. The Wildcats have an 83 percent chance to win that one. They are not scheduled to face another ranked team this season.

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Was this LeBron's worst loss as a pro?

The Cleveland Cavaliers suffered a 23-point home loss against the Detroit Pistons on Sunday, a loss that can be described as puzzling, shocking and even unprecedented in many ways.

According to Elias Sports Bureau research, the 23-point loss by the Cavaliers is the worst loss by a LeBron James team in his career against a team with a winning percentage below .300 at least 20 games into the season. His previous worst loss was by 18 against a 7-17 Knicks team back in December 2007.

The Cavaliers' loss against the 6-23 Pistons is the third-worst loss of James' career in terms of opponent winning percentage entering the game at least 20 games into the season. According to Elias data, the worst team a LeBron squad lost to was in January 2009 when the Cavs lost to the 6-25 Wizards.

Worst Home Loss
LeBron James Career

	Opponent	Margin
2004-05	Nets	31
2007-08	Nuggets	30
Sunday	Pistons	23
* All with Cavaliers

It's the worst winning percentage for an opponent that a LeBron team has lost to at home (minimum 20 games into the season).

The 23-point loss for the Cavaliers is the third-worst home loss of LeBron's career against any team, his worst home loss since February 2008, when the Cavs lost by 30 against the Nuggets. In his four seasons with the Heat, they never lost by more than 20 in a home game.

James was 5-of-19 from the field with seven turnovers. The only other time in his career that he shot less than 30 percent from the field and committed at least seven turnovers was against the Bulls in January 2009.

What happened to the Cavs?
After an eight-game win streak, the Cavaliers were 13-7 and it looked like they had figured things out to a degree. Since then, they're just 5-5, with only one win against a team over .500 during that span.

Over their past 10 games, the Cavaliers rank 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. During that span, they rank 28th in field goal percentage defense and 26th in 3-point percentage defense.

The Pistons made a franchise-record 17 3-pointers on Sunday against the Cavaliers.

The J-Smoove effect
Meanwhile, the Pistons are 2-0 since waiving Josh Smith with double-digit wins over the Pacers and Cavs. Compare that to their 5-23 record with Smith this season.

Since letting Smith go on Dec. 22, the Pistons have the second-most efficient offense in the NBA. Only the Raptors (117.1 points per 100 possessions) are slightly ahead of the Pistons (117.0) over the past week.

With Smith, the Pistons ranked 28th in offensive efficiency with 97.6 points per 100 possessions.

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2014年12月17日星期三

Bears have issues with pass on both sides

Even though the Chicago Bears are eliminated from postseason contention, they got some national attention on Wednesday.

ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter reported that the team is planning a starting quarterback switch from Jay Cutler to Jimmy Clausen. The Bears have not made an announcement related to a potential move.

Cutler posted a 6.8 Total QBR and was sacked seven times in Monday night’s loss to the Saints. It was the second-worst quarterbacking performance of the week, better than only Johnny Manziel.

Can't Always Get What You Want...
Highest Paid QB, Last 3 Seasons

		QBR Rank<<
2014	Jay Cutler	21st
2013	Aaron Rodgers	6th
2012	Drew Brees	8th
*During season as highest-paid QB

It was also the second time in six weeks that Cutler posted a Total QBR below 7.0 and the third time in that span in which he had a Total QBR lower than 25.

Cutler had a 59.0 Total QBR through Week 11, which ranked 15th-best in the NFL. His Total QBR since then is 43.6, which ranks 21st.

The cash value of Cutler’s contract this season is $22.5 million. That’s the highest in the NFL for a player who leads the league in both interceptions (18) and turnovers (24).

Cutler has averaged a turnover every 33.3 snaps. The average NFL quarterback averages a turnover for every 65.3 snaps.

The replacement
Clausen hasn’t started a game since the 2010 season and the reason is likely due to his ineffectiveness then. Clausen went 1-9 as a starter for the Panthers that season. In those 10 games, he threw three touchdowns and nine interceptions, posting a league-worst Total QBR of 11.0

In fact, that Total QBR is the lowest season-ending QBR for a quarterback for any of the nine seasons in which that stat has been tracked.

Far from the only thing wrong
The problems for the Bears have been magnified in recent weeks because of the team’s struggles.

The other big issue they’re currently dealing with is that they can’t stop anyone. They lead the NFL with 409 points allowed.

Their defense added a league-leading 7.6 expected points per game in 2012. Last year they fell all the way to 30th, costing the team about 6.6 expected points per game. They are again 30th this year, costing the team about 7.3 expected points per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed 67.6 percent of their passes against the Bears this season, the second-highest completion percentage in the NFL. Their 3,811 passing yards allowed are the second-most of any team. They’ve allowed 33 touchdown passes, most in the NFL.

Teams have exposed the Bears secondary with intermediate-length passes. The Bears have allowed 48 completions on throws 11 to 15 yards downfield, the most in the NFL. Opponents have completed 59 percent of passes thrown at least 11 yards downfield, the worst percentage for a defense this season.

Opponents are putting up big numbers outside the numbers. They've allowed 18 touchdowns on such throws, one fewer than the team with the most, the Steelers.

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Padres adding power to their outfield

Wil Myers is reportedly headed to the San Diego Padres, with the Tampa Bay Rays agreeing to trade the 2013 American League Rookie of the Year winner.

Wil Myers

#9 RF
Tampa Bay Rays

2014 STATS

GM87
HR6
RBI35
R37
OBP.294
AVG.222

Myers played in nearly an identical number of games in 2014 as he did in 2013, missing time due to a wrist inury. His production went down considerably from a .293 batting average, 13 home runs and 1.9 WAR in 2013 to .222 with six home runs and -0.9 WAR in 2014.

This was the second time that Myers has been dealt. He was previously traded from the Royals to the Rays in the 2012-2013 offseason in a deal that netted the Royals James Shields and Wade Davis.

What are the statistical storylines behind a Myers deal?

This is an unusual kind of trade
The Elias Sports Bureau notes that Myers will be the first Rookie of the Year winner to switch teams within two years of winning the award since Butch Metzger and Pat Zachry won in 1976 and were traded a season later.

Zachry was traded from the Reds to the Mets as part of a deal that brought the Reds back future Hall-of-Famer Tom Seaver.

A notable drop-off
Exactly 200 players have had at least 300 plate appearances in each of the last two seasons. Only five of them experienced a larger drop-off in OPS from 2013 to 2014 than Myers did (.831 to .614).

Myers’ performance was down even before he suffered the injury at the end of May that sidelined him until late August.

He had a slashline of .227/.313/.354 before the injury. He came back a bit rusty, posting a .213/.263/.268 slashline and only one home run in 127 at-bats after returning.

Myers’ upside
The reason that the Padres would want Myers is because of his potential. He wowed at times in 2013 after being heralded as one of the game’s top prospects.

When Myers is going good, he crushes pitches at the top of the strike zone and up around the eyes.

He hit a major-league best .390 against pitches in the upper-half of the strike zone and above in 2013.

He saw a lower rate of pitches up there last season (the rate decreased from 36 percent to 30 percent and his performance dipped against them as well (he hit only .209 in at-bats ending in those pitches).

A revamped outfield
The Padres deal for Matt Kemp is not yet finalized, but if it is, the team will have done a significant overhaul of its outfield.

Padres outfielders ranked last in the majors in slugging percentage (.347) last season. Their 29 home runs ranked fourth-worst.

Myers had a .478 slugging percentage as a rookie. Kemp slugged .470 in 2013 and .508 in 2014. He slugged .606 after the All-Star Break last season.

One potential weakness: Defense
PETCO Park is spacious and a challenge to hit in. There’s also a lot of ground for outfielders to cover.
Kemp ranked last among outfielders last season with -23 Defensive Runs Saved. In 150 games in right field, Myers has compiled -11 Defensive Runs Saved.

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2014年12月14日星期日

Mariota's numbers add up to Heisman

Steve Dykes/Getty ImagesMarcus Mariota has led Oregon to a Rose Bowl berth.

Marcus Mariota was arguably the second-best quarterback in college football in each of the previous two seasons.

This year, he has not only been recognized as the best quarterback, but the sport’s best player as well.

Mariota easily won the Heisman Trophy on Saturday night, topping Melvin Gordon and Amari Cooper. Mariota had 2,534 total points, including 788 first-place votes. He received 90.9 percent of the possible points, the second most in the trophy’s history. Gordon earned 1,250 points, and Cooper 1,023.

The history
Mariota is the first Heisman winner in Oregon history and the only Ducks player to finish first or second in the voting.

Won Heisman, Maxwell & O'Brien
in same season

	School
2014 Marcus Mariota	Oregon
2010 Cam Newton	Auburn
2007 Tim Tebow	Florida
1996 Danny Wuerffel	Florida
1993 Charlie Ward	Florida State
1992 Gino Torretta	Miami
1990 Ty Detmer	BYU
1986 V. Testaverde	Miami
1984 Doug Flutie	Boston College
* Since Davey O'Brien Award limited to QBs (1981)

He’s the eighth player to win the Heisman in a season in which a previous Heisman winner at the same position (in this case, Jameis Winston) also played.

He’s the first winner from a school in the Pacific Northwest (encompassing Oregon, Idaho and Washington) since Terry Baker of Oregon State in 1962.

Mariota became the ninth quarterback to win the Heisman Trophy, Maxwell Award and Davey O’Brien Award in the same season, the third to do so in the past eight seasons, joining Tim Tebow (2007) and Cam Newton (2010).

Mariota and Winston will meet in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. It will be the fourth time two players with Heismans will have faced each other in a game. The last instance was in the BCS National Championship Game in January 2009, when Tim Tebow and Florida defeated Sam Bradford and Oklahoma.

Quarterbacks have won each of the past five Heismans and 13 of the past 14 (excluding Reggie Bush's vacated award).

What Mariota does best
One of Mariota’s most lauded traits is his ability to find the end zone without turning the ball over. He has been responsible for 53 touchdowns this year and has committed five turnovers, the second-best margin (plus-48) by any Power 5 player over the past 10 seasons. Tebow (plus-49 in 2007, including plus-4 in the Citrus Bowl) is the only player with a better differential in that span.

Two of Mariota's 372 passes have been intercepted this year, just a shade above half a percent. If he can maintain that in the College Football Playoff, he would break the FBS single-season record (minimum 350 passes) that Kellen Moore set in 2009, when three of his 431 passes (0.7 percent) were intercepted.

Mariota does this and still throws the deep pass accurately. His 54 completions on throws 15 or more yards downfield are the most among Power 5 players. He completes 56 percent of those throws, a mark that ranks second.

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