Lagares showing he's more than just the best CF in baseball

NEW YORK -- As he waited for his next swings in batting practice before Saturday's game, Michael Cuddyer explained why he thinks Juan Lagares is going to hit a lot better than expected, and he's going to be far better than a strong defensive player and marginal hitter.

The comparable player, in Cuddyer's mind, is a former teammate of his in Minnesota, Carlos Gomez, who struggled offensively for years before exploding in his mid-20s and becoming one of the best all-around center fielders in baseball.

A moment later, Lagares, swinging hard in the cage, mashed a ball off the facing of the second deck in left field at Yankee Stadium, then short-hopped a line drive off the center-field fence.

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Four Factors look at Thursday's Sweet 16

Below is a short preview of each of Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchups. Included in the preview is a “factor to watch” based on Dean Oliver’s Four Factors of basketball success, which have been shown to correlate with winning: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws.

7 Wichita State vs. 3 Notre Dame
BPI Edge: Wichita State 50.1 percent -- projected to be the closest game of the Sweet 16.

This matchup might come down to ... the backcourts. Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker of Wichita State and Jerian Grant and Demetrius Jackson of Notre Dame are two of the best backcourts in the nation. Each duo has combined for more than 12 win shares, an estimate of the wins a player produces for his team.

Most win shares among guard duos, 2014-15 seasons
Fred VanVleet-Ron Baker, Wichita State, 13.3
Delon Wright-Brandon Taylor, Utah, 13.3
Jerian Grant-Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame 12.8
Source: CBB Reference

(Four) Factor to watch: Shooting: Notre Dame ranks second in the nation in effective field goal percentage, behind Gonzaga. Because Notre Dame ranks outside of the top 100 defensively, it is reliant on its efficient offense; the Irish’s three worst shooting performances resulted in losses. Meanwhile, Wichita State has allowed the second-lowest effective field goal percentage in the nation since the start of February.

4 North Carolina vs. 1 Wisconsin
BPI Edge: Wisconsin 76 percent

This matchup might come down to ... which team can control the tempo. Wisconsin averages 59.8 possessions per game, seventh fewest in the nation and 10 fewer than UNC, the fastest-paced team in the ACC. The Tar Heels have never been held to a pace as slow as Wisconsin’s season average for possessions this season, but of their seven lowest-possession games of the season, they lost five.

(Four) Factor to watch: Rebounding: UNC rebounds more than 40 percent of its missed shots, the fifth-highest offensive rebound percentage in the country. This leads to 14.2 second-chance points per game. Wisconsin rebounds 76 percent of its opponents’ missed shots, fourth-best in the nation.

5 West Virginia vs. 1 Kentucky
BPI Edge: Kentucky 92 percent -- projected to be the most lopsided game.

This matchup might come down to ... whether West Virginia can create offense from its turnovers. The Mountaineers force a turnover on 28 percent of their opponents’ possessions, best in the nation, which leads to a Division I-high 20.7 points per game off turnovers. In the half court, Kentucky is allowing a Division I-best 0.68 points per possession, and West Virginia ranks 258th in the nation in half-court efficiency, so the Mountaineers will have to get out and run to score with the Wildcats.

(Four) Factor to watch: Rebounding: West Virginia and Kentucky are two of seven teams that rebound at least 40 percent of their own missed shots. Each team scores about 13 points per game off offensive rebounds. One weakness for Kentucky is defensive rebounding (ranking 196th), so West Virginia might be able to score some easy points on putbacks.

6 Xavier vs. 2 Arizona
BPI Edge: Arizona 84 percent

This matchup might come down to ... which point guard can make plays. T.J. McConnell and Dee Davis have the highest and third-highest assist rates among players remaining in the NCAA tournament, according to KenPom.com. Each player has been responsible for more than a third of his team’s points in the tournament.

(Four) Factor to watch: Rebounding: Xavier rebounded 33 percent of its missed shots in each of its first two NCAA tournament games, resulting in 25 second-chance points and contributing to its off-the-charts 63.9 effective field goal percentage. Arizona is the best defensive rebounding team in the nation, grabbing 78 percent of its opponents’ missed shots.

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Spurs' passing, shooting at high level

It looks like the San Antonio Spurs are back in business.

They improved to 11-3 since Feb. 27 with a 130-91 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder. San Antonio’s 130 points were a season high.

The Thunder fell to 18-11 when Russell Westbrook plays and Durant doesn’t, but it’s worth noting that’s split up as 13-1 against sub-.500 teams and 5-11 versus teams with recirds of .500 or better.

The Spurs were a late Thunder 3-pointer away from matching their largest margin of victory under Gregg Popovich (the mark remains a 42-point win against the Sacramento Kings during the 1997-98 season).

San Antonio is now 15-5 when their regular starting lineup plays (Tony Parker, Danny Green,Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter).

How they’re winning: Parker in the paint
The Spurs are rolling because their offense is clicking. All five of their starters shot 50 percent or better from the field on Wednesday. San Antonio shot 58 percent from the field, the second time in 11 days that they shot the ball that well and the third-best that they’ve shot from the field this season.

The Spurs are averaging 112.4 points per game during this 14-game run, 12 points better than what they averaged prior to the start of this stretch. They rank first in the league in points per game, offensive efficiency and assist-to-turnover ratio since Feb. 27.

When the Spurs made at least two passes on a possession on Wednesday, they shot 65 percent from the field and had an assist to turnover ratio of 24-to-4.

One of the keys to the Spurs' recent success was on display on Wednesday.

Tony Parker scored 10 of his game-high 21 points in the paint. He has scored at least 10 points in the paint seven times this month. He had scored 10 or more only nine times all season entering March.

Parker averaged 5.8 points and 52 percent shooting in the paint this season through the end of February. In 12 games this month, he’s averaging 9.8 points and shooting 66 percent in the paint.

Elias Sports Bureau Stat of the Night
The Spurs were the only home team to win on Wednesday. The 12-1 record by road teams is an NBA best on a single day with a minimum of 10 games played.

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Top stats to know: Rookie of year preview

 
AP Photo/Charles Rex ArbogastThis swing produced 36 home runs in 2014.

Awards season kicks off on Monday with the announcement of the AL and NL Rookie of the Year awards. 

In the American League, the choice is clear-cut, with Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu heavily favored over New York Yankees pitcher Dellin Betances and Los Angeles Angels pitcher Matt Shoemaker. 

In the National League, New York Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom, Cincinnati Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton and St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong are the three finalists in what should be a close race. 

AL: Abreu’s award to lose 
Abreu is trying to become the first White Sox player to win the AL Rookie of the Year award since Ozzie Guillen in 1985 and the sixth White Sox player overall, joining Hall of Famer Luis Aparicio (1956), Gary Peters (1963), Tommie Agee (1966) and Ron Kittle (1983). 

Jose Abreu, 2014 Season

		Most by AL Rookie Since ...
HR	36	1987 (Mark McGwire, 49)
RBI	107	1999 (Carlos Beltran, 108)
OPS	.964	1994 (Bob Hamelin, .987)

Abreu led all rookies in home runs (36), RBIs (107), hits (176), doubles (35), runs scored (80), OBP (.383), slugging percentage (.581) and OPS (.964). He's the first rookie in major league history to finish in the top five of all three Triple Crown categories. 

Abreu became the first player in MLB history to win both the player of the month and the rookie of the month awards twice in the same season. 

Abreu would be the first first baseman to win the award since Ryan Howard of the Phillies won in 2005. 

That’s not to say that Betances and Shoemaker didn’t have good seasons. 

Betances had a 1.40 ERA and averaged 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings, both the lowest totals for anyone who threw at least 80 innings this season. Betances also ranked best among those pitchers in opponents’ batting average (.149) and OPS (.442). 

At age 28, Shoemaker had one of the best rookie seasons for an Angels pitcher. He finished 16-4 and was 7-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his last eight appearances of the season. 

NL: deGrom vs. Hamilton 
DeGrom is trying to become the first Mets player to win rookie of the year honors since Dwight Gooden in 1984. The other Mets to win the honor are Tom Seaver (1967), Jon Matlack (1972) and Darryl Strawberry (1983). 

Hamilton vs. Wong & deGrom

March-June

Hamilton: .281 BA, 34 SB, 12 CS Wong: .228 BA, 1 HR, 158 AB deGrom: 1-4, 3.62 ERA

July-September

Hamilton: .220 BA, 22 SB, 11 CS Wong: .262 BA, 11 HR, 244 AB deGrom: 8-2, 2.10 ERA

DeGrom didn’t figure to be in the rookie of the year running after starting the season 0-4, but he was dominant the rest of the year, going 9-2 with a 1.99 ERA in his last 15 starts. DeGrom allowed 20 runs in his first seven starts and only 24 in those last 15. 

Included in that was a start against the Marlins in which he tied a major league record by striking out the first eight batters of the game. 

Hamilton is trying to become the first Reds player to win the award since pitcher Scott Williamson won in 1999. The last Reds position player to win was third baseman Chris Sabo of the Reds in 1988. Other Reds to take the honors: Pete Rose (1963), Tommy Helms (1966), Johnny Bench (1968) and Pat Zachry (1976). 

Hamilton excelled in two areas: baserunning, as he finished second in the NL with 56 stolen bases, and defense. He led NL center fielders with 10 assists and ranked third among them with 14 defensive runs saved. 

Hamilton’s 56 steals are tied for the second most by a rookie in the wild-card era, behind only Tony Womack’s 60 for the Diamondbacks in 1997. 

Wong is an unlikely candidate to win, but he did close the season very strong. He would be the first Cardinals player to win rookie of the year since Albert Pujols in 2001.

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