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2014年12月14日星期日

Bryant passes Jordan, has shot to be No. 1

Los Angeles Lakers guard Kobe Bryant reached a much heralded milestone Sunday, netting 26 points to surpass Michael Jordan for third on the NBA's all-time scoring list. Bryant needed 1,269 games to reach Jordan’s mark of 32,292 points, a number Jordan achieved after 1,072 career games. Now with 32,310 career points, Bryant trails only Karl Malone (36,928) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (38,387).

Although Bryant has passed Jordan in points, it's hard to call Bryant the more prolific all-time scorer. Jordan holds the all-time records for scoring titles and points per game. He is ahead of Bryant in seasons with averaging 30 points per game, 50-point games and highest season scoring average.

Who's the better scorer?

	Jordan	Bryant
Scoring titles	10<<	2
30 PPG seasons	8<<	3
PPG	30.1<<	25.5
50-point games	31	24
Highest PPG season	37.1	35.4
*Most in NBA History

What Bryant should be lauded for is his longevity.

If Bryant maintains an average of at least 25 points this season, he’ll pass the two men sandwiching him on the all-time scoring list -- Malone and Jordan -- for most seasons with an average of 25 points or better in NBA history. The three are tied with 12 apiece.

Bryant is in his 19th season. His current scoring average would obliterate Abdul-Jabbar’s record for the highest scoring average by a player in his 19th season or later, which came in 1987-88 when Abdul-Jabbar averaged 14.6 points.

Bryant trails Malone by 4,618 points, therefore would need 182 regular-season games to pass Malone at his current scoring average of 25.4 points. The Lakers have 58 games left this season, so about halfway into the 2016-17 season figures to be a reasonable estimate for when Bryant could pass Malone.

Although Bryant figures to breeze by Malone, catching Abdul-Jabbar will be a challenge. If Bryant keeps up a pace of 25.0 points a game, which is roughly his career average, he could track down Abdul-Jabbar in the 2017-18 season.

Given Remaining Career Avg PPG

	Season to Pass
20.0 PPG	2018-19
22.5 PPG	2017-18
25.0 PPG	2017-18
27.5 PPG	2016-17
30.0 PPG	2016-17
*6,193 points shy of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Some quick hitters highlighting the rarified air Bryant occupies as a scorer:

• His four straight 50-point games in 2007 is matched only by Wilt Chamberlain (who did it as many as seven times in the 1961-62 season).

• Bryant stands with Chamberlain as the only players with 10 games of 50-plus points in a season. Bryant did it 10 times in 2006-07, whereas Chamberlain did it 45 times in 1961-62 and 30 times in 1962-63.

• Bryant has averaged at least 40 points per game through a calendar month four times. Only Chamberlain (15 times) and Elgin Baylor (once) have averaged 40 in a month (minimum five games per month).

• Bryant averaged 35.4 points per game in the 2005-06 season. He joined Wilt Chamberlain (five seasons), Rick Barry (1966-67) and Jordan (1986-87) as players to score at least 35 points per game through an entire season.

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2014年12月11日星期四

Ellis has found his range

Monta Ellis' strong play in clutch time was again pivotal for the Dallas Mavericks.

Ellis scored 13 of the Mavericks last 15 fourth-quarter points in their win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday night.

Ellis entered the game averaging 4.5 clutch-time points per game, third-best in the NBA. He had six in this contest, making all three shots he took.

Clutch time is defined as the final five minutes of the fourth quarter and overtime where the score is within five points.

Ellis' 13 fourth-quarter points are the second-most he’s scored in a fourth quarter this season (15, Nov. 28 at Raptors).

It was a nice bounceback for Ellis after his 1-of-11 shooting in a loss to the Grizzlies on Tuesday

Ellis was a little more choosy in his shot selection on Wednesday and was rewarded. He made both 3-pointers he tried, notable since he entered the game 4-of-22 from 3-point range in the previous six games. He had been averaging four 3-point attempts per game over the last dozen games.

He's continuing to score from midrange. Ellis was 5-of-10 on midrange shots on Wednesday and is shooting 48 percent on those shots this season.

Last season, Ellis shot only 39 percent on mid-range shots.

That's a big difference. Last season, Ellis made 157 mid-range shots. This season, he's on pace for 249.

And it's allowed him to still be effective despite shooting only 32 percent from 3-point range.

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Porcello, Cespedes have valuable arms

After missing out on the Jon Lester sweepstakes, the Boston Red Sox continued the retooling of their pitching staff by obtaining Rick Porcello from the Detroit Tigers for Yoenis Cespedes and two minor leaguers.

In need of a solid arm
The Red Sox struggled to get consistent starting pitching last season, posting a combined ERA of 4.36, third worst in the American League.

Rick Porcello

#21 SP

2014 STATS

GM32
W15
L13
BB41
K129
ERA3.43

Porcello joins the Red Sox coming off the best season of his career. Last season, the right-hander set career-bests in wins, ERA, WHIP and walk rate. He also reached 200 innings for the first time and pitched the first three shutouts of his career.

He was worth 4.0 Wins Above Replacement last season. In 2012 and 2013 combined, Porcello was worth 3.9 WAR.

Porcello has consistently ranked as one of the top ground-ball inducers among starting pitchers. His 53 percent ground-ball rate over the last three seasons ranks 12th among the 100 pitchers who have thrown the most innings in that span.

Porcello might also benefit from getting away from Comerica Park. He has a 4.56 ERA there over the last three seasons, compared to 3.63 on the road. His 2.66 ERA road ERA last season ranked 10th in the majors.

Big Bat, Better Arm

Céspedes’ departure clears a glut in the Red Sox outfield and gives the Tigers another powerful bat. He's averaged 24 home runs and 27 doubles in his first three major-league seasons.

Though Céspedes will certainly add to an already potent Tigers offense, his largest contributions will likely come on defense.

Yoenis Cespedes

#52 LF

2014 STATS

GM152
HR22
RBI100
R89
OBP.301
AVG.260

His 12 Defensive Runs Saved ranked third among leftfielders last season. Those runs come mainly from the value of his throwing arm. He led the majors with 16 outfield assists last season. He has 35 assists over the last three seasons. Only Alex Gordon of the Royals has more (42).

Tigers outfielders combined for -33 Defensive Runs Saved last season, third-worst in the majors.

Cespedes was worth 4.1 Wins Above Replacement last season. This makes for a case of the rich getting richer. He'll join a Tigers team that has four returning players who were worth at least 4.0 WAR last season-- Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera and Ian Kinsler. The Tigers and Pirates were the only teams to have four position players worth at least 4.0 WAR last season.

Cespedes will likely be the Tigers' ninth different opening day leftfielder in the last nine seasons. Only the Padres have a longer active streak of different Opening Day leftfielders-- 10 straight seasons.

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2014年12月10日星期三

Miley may be better than his 2014 numbers

The Boston Red Sox didn’t sign Jon Lester, but they’ve reportedly added a left-handed pitcher with a skill set that is to their liking by trading for Diamondbacks southpaw Wade Miley.

Miley

Miley’s numbers jumped a bit in 2014. He had a 4.34 ERA, a big jump from the 3.44 ERA he posted in 2013 and 2012 combined. But a look beyond that shows some things that the Red Sox management found to be of value.

What does Miley bring to his new team?

Innings-Eater
Miley is one of 15 pitchers to throw at least 190 innings in each of the last three seasons. The only pitchers younger than him on that list are Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner.

Strikeouts and Ground Balls
Miley was one of 14 pitchers to qualify for the ERA title and have a strikeout rate of at least 20 percent and a ground-ball rate of at least 50 percent in 2014.

He gets ground balls because of his ability to keep the ball down. He threw 59 percent of his pitches in the lower third of the strike zone or below in 2014, the highest percentage for anyone who threw at least 100 innings.

Miley was hurt a little bit more by ground balls than he had been previously. Opponents had a “reached-base percentage” (via hit or error) of .277 on ground balls and bunts against him. Their reached-base percentage was .254 from 2012 to 2013.

Controlling the running game
Miley excels in controlling the running game. Baserunners are 15-of-34 in steal attempts against him for his career. He’s never allowed more than five stolen bases in a season.

Miley’s 10 pickoffs since the start of 2013 are tied for sixth in the majors.

Getting out of Arizona
Miley has been much more effective on the road than at home over the last two seasons, which is tied directly to the long ball.

He’s allowed 29 home runs in Arizona the last two seasons, giving him a 4.90 ERA there. He’s yielded only 15 on the road, where his ERA is 3.13.

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